How Can Baltimore Orioles Keep Pace With Other American League Contenders?

The Baltimore Orioles have made the playoffs just five times since the turn of the century.

The good news is two of those postseason appearances came in the last two years.

Orioles baseball is undoubtedly on the rise.

The question now becomes can they take another step forward and have a deep playoff run in 2025?

Baltimore's recent ascension is correlated with the arrival of MVP contender Gunnar Henderson. He will turn 24 years old in June, yet he is already considered the best shortstop in baseball by some. Henderson posted a 9.1 bWAR in 2024, good for fourth-best in the league. He's the Orioles undisputed best player.

There in lies one of the problems with Baltimore improving upon their recent success; the team lacks true star power behind Henderson.

What's worse is they lost two of their top producers from 2024.

Starting pitcher Corbin Burnes was second on the team with a 3.4 bWAR last year. Burnes is now an Arizona Diamondback. Right fielder Anthony Santander hit 44 home runs last season. He now plays right field and will likely hit cleanup for the rival Toronto Blue Jays.

Former St. Louis Cardinals and Boston Red Sox outfielder Tyler O'Neill will replace Santander. O'Neill hit 31 homes runs with a 2.6 bWAR in 2024, compared to Santander's 2.9 bWAR. That's a sideways move for the Orioles, if not a slight downgrade.

The rest of Baltimore's lineup will be filled by players who were with team last year.

If the Orioles are going to be a better offense in 2025, one of their own is going to need to have a breakthrough campaign.

Second baseman Jackson Holliday is a former first-round pick who will turn 22 years old in December. He only has 190 Major League at-bats, so he could realistically bring much more to the table in 2025.

Right fielder Colton Cowser is another former first-round pick who will turn 25 in March. He had the third-highest bWAR (3.1) on the team last year, hitting 24 home runs while slashing .242/.321/.447.

Holliday and Cowser are the best bets to create better offense in 2025.

Baltimore's rotation has limited paths to being significantly better. Zach Eflin was acquired via trade last July, making this his first full season with the Orioles. With Burnes in Arizona, Eflin likely sits on top of the rotation.

New addition Charlie Morton will turn 42 years old in November with 17 Major League seasons under his belt. Morton brings a level of veteran reliability to the rotation, but the chances of him having a breakthrough season are near zero.

Free agent signing Tomoyuki Sugano is an interesting mystery box for the Orioles. He is a 35-year-old Japanese pitcher who is a dark horse American League Rookie of the Year candidate. He could conceivably bring an extra boost to the Orioles rotation, but that shouldn't be the expectation.

Then there is Grayson Rodriguez, who is another former first-round pick who will turn 26 years old in November.

Rodriguez's heater is clocked in the mid to upper 90's, headlining his five-pitch arsenal. Each of those pitches had at least a 24.1% whiff rate in 2024. He only had a 1.4 bWAR over 20 appearances last year, so there is obvious room for improvement.

If anyone in Baltimore's rotation is going to take a major leap in 2025, Rodriguez has the most logical path.

To stay ahead of the improved Red Sox or challenge the New York Yankees for AL East supremacy, Baltimore needs their blue chip, homegrown talent to take a leap.

For the Orioles to make any noise this postseason, chances are their collection of former first-round picks is the reason.

If any of those premium talents turns into a star like Henderson, the last few years could just be the beginning for Baltimore.

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