Scoring Early Means Everything To The Orioles. It Must Happen More Frequently

The Baltimore Orioles will attempt to win four games in a row for the first time this season against the struggling Angels Tuesday night with a poor starter on the mound for their opponents.

Seems like a perfect opportunity to cash in early.

Which needs to become a trend for a lineup that has been far too erratic and routinely waits far too deep into games to get going. This pitching staff is in another nice run of form, but lacks high-end arms (with the bullpen even more lacking), and the lineup must be a daily strength if the Orioles are going to get anywhere close to baseball czar Mike Elias’s stated goal for the 2026 campaign.

This modest win streak has been fueled by finally backing their starting pitchers with some early support, allowing them to lean even more heavily into an aggressive approach, trying to flood the strike zone. The Birds have scored first in three straight games, an incredible rarity for them, especially on the road; they entered this 10-day road trip among the dregs in MLB in scoring and hitting away from home through the first five innings and still rank just 18th in runs produced in that split despite their recent outbursts.

This matters, majorly, given the way this roster was constructed and the way this team plays ball (a brutally bad defensive team can lean into getting its best defenders on the field in desired situations earlier in games with a lead; a shallow pen calls on its better arms protecting leads). Baltimore’s starters – who all know they lack elite swing-and-miss stuff – can trust it more and not nibble when they think they might keep getting some support.

It seems to be particularly vital to this group.

Tuesday’s starter, Shane Baz, may have been prophetic after his last start when asked about his team’s inability to got hot as they limped through a series in Seattle to start this road sojourn.

“I feel like jumping out to the lead would help us a lot,” Baz said amid a few introspective pauses to consider the gravity of the situation. It looks even more profound now upon the recent win streak and study of how we got here.

Scoring Early Means Everything To These Birds

The Orioles are 11-2 this season when leading after one inning, with an .846 winning percentage that leads the American League (per Stathead data via baseballreference.com) and is second in MLB. Small sample size, but the league average in these situations is .733, quite a chasm. Problem is, it’s happened just 13 times; only the pathetic Red Sox lineup (10 times) and anemic Padres (10 times) have done it less.

It certainly seemed to matter on Sunday, when Brandon Young was staked to a two-run lead in the first HYPER and could navigate an immediate jam while still pitching to contact; he allowed a run in the first to the top of a tough order and still had a lead he would never surrender. Believe it or not, that outing Sunday, and Monday’s drubbing of the Angles, are the only times the Orioles have led after one inning in consecutive games this season (80 games in!) and just the second time all season it’s happened twice in the same week.

“It’s nice to beat some ass sometimes, honestly, and get a series win,” Young said after a 12-1 win in which he labored to throw 97 pitches through five innings. As to the run support: “It makes my job a little easier, kind of reinforcing the first-pitch strike mentality. And if I can get ahead and stay ahead, that’s when I have my best success.”

Amen brother.

He and Baz are speaking for everyone here, trust me. Watching a rotation (except for Young) largely try to navigate around the fastball night after night leads to problems. A few early runs go a long way.

What about as the game expands, you ask?

Beyond Inning One

The trend holds, across the board. Means so much; doesn’t happen nearly enough.

When the O’s lead through three innings they are 22-6 (10th best in MLB) … but those 28 instances rank 20th in baseball.

When they lead after five innings they are 23-4 (13th in MLB) … but those 27 instances rank just 29th in baseball. (Only those miserable Red Sox have done it less frequently, just 23 times).

And, of course, some of this has been due to starters imploding early or the Orioles bridge guys in the pen not being very good, but trust me, if this lineup was fulfilling Elias’s propaganda about it from spring training, the team’s record would be much better.

The Nationals, on the other side of the Beltway, were supposed to be rebuilding again with a terrible staff and an even worse bullpen and they can’t field the ball either (though it’s been a lot better lately). But their young sluggers have mashed and the Nats have led after five innings 43 times – tied for the MLB lead with the mighty Dodgers - and they have more wins in those scenarios (33) then times the Orioles have achieved it.

It’s not the only reason the Nats are one of the biggest surprises in ball at 41-38 (with a projected win total around 65 in March), despite playing in the far more difficult National League. And it has plenty to do with the Orioles being 38-42 and lucky to be buoyed by how pathetic the rest of the AL has been.

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