Should the Orioles Buy or Sell? The Case Is Becoming Clear

With each passing day it’s become more clear – regardless of what happens on the field – what Orioles baseball boss Mike Elias is planning to do.

The plan is subtle but it’s in the open, and has been for weeks if you knew what you were watching and understand the particulars involved, who care way more about the long con than about winning anything big in October. Then when you factor in who gets placed on the Injured List concurrently and follow the way the national media is reporting on this roster the closer the deadline gets, and you heard the owner talk up Elias as someone whose job security appears beyond reproach.

it’s all pointing in one direction.

These Orioles can’t compete with winning teams, the schedule remains brutal down the stretch, the lineup is in tatters and they can’t field the ball or run the bases well. They lack anything close to the power bullpens that dominate the postseason. Oh, and the manager is largely overmatched in the regular season.

The Sale Is On

Elias will sell again.

Just view this inflection point from the prism of former first overall catcher Adley Rutschman.

He will never sign an extension here and everyone in the industry has long known he will never sign a contract here. Yet Elias tried to tell his fanbase in June – in a ploy to sell tickets to games in later summer – he couldn’t fathom a future without him ("We want him here forever," Elias actually uttered, pandering to his always-coddled, yet underperforming favorite). And somehow you couldn't find a Rutschman trade rumor anywhere at the time despite it being clearly the most likely course of action.

Now, all of sudden, Rutschman is considered the 10th to 15th most likely potential-impact player to be moved at the deadline (depending on whose list you prefer) despite the O's having their best month of the season by far even with the injuries.

Why do you think that is? And, how do you think that’s going to play if he isn’t moved to a team with a real shot to win at this point? He’s already blocked at catcher by a 21-year-old (Samuel Basallo) and blocked at first base by a 30-something (Pete Alonso) and this training staff can’t help him stay healthy and this player development staff can’t help him slug (47 career homers as a catcher).

He won’t be playing in any playoff games here to help boost his stock in free agency and he hasn’t even caught close to half of Baltimore’s games since June 21, 2024. It’s time for him to follow the money and there ain’t any of that for him here. You think these baseball cyborgs in The Warehouse, whose lack of self-awareness and people skills are going to navigate that? (They're the laughingstock of MLB as analyst Kyle Glaser explained on “The Daily Flock Show” recently).

Why So Many Catchers All Of A Sudden?

I don’t think they have any intention of seeing how prickly that could get by waiting to try to peddle him in the offseason (Tampa is the perfect trade partner, and man did Adley love hanging out with his buddies on the Rays at the All-Star Game). And while Adley is suddenly rocketing up the most-likely-to-be-dealt lists, the Orioles keep collecting catchers like they are on the verge of extinction, bringing back Chadwick Tromp and adding Yohel Pozo and then trading for Jake Rogers from the Tigers Thursday.

There is a pretty good chance catcher Sam Huff, just DFAd again, could end up back in Norfolk if they wanted him. And they have Silas Ardoin already there in AAA who can handle the glove and catch in MLB if needed, plus as prospect Creed Willems, who remains a project behind the plate but has hit well enough for a catcher in the high minors. We've seen Maverick Handley get a run and watched Pedro Severino butcher a perfect game and Elias never flinched. This ain't normal, and this GM never cared all that much about defense anywhere, even at catcher.

There has been no signal to this point that Rutschman or Basallo have suffered such a significant downturn in their recovery from what were supposed to be relatively short-term injuries. Heck, Adley couldnt stop mugging it up for the cameras in Detroit this week. So I don’t think all these catcher machinations are merely due to a wrist and a shoulder.

And, if you are that open to sending Rutschman out, then of course others are going to follow. You aren’t clinging to guys on expiring contracts or wildly-erratic year-over-year relievers who happen to be hot now after shipping out the face of your failed rebuild and alleged uber-leader of your clubhouse and pitching staff while he’s mired in a two-plus year funk.

Nah, you are tearing this thing up and trying to find out what Jackson Holliday and Colton Cowser could fetch, too, and, yeah, even Gunnar Henderson. That’s what happens when you regress this much individually and collectively over 25 months.

The case is clear. The direction is clear.

This weekend will be wild (off the field) and by 6pm Monday “liftoff” will be officially surrendered and Rebuild 2.0 will be launched.

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