The 10 Biggest Pressure Points of MLB’s Trade Deadline

From Mets executive David Stearns to a boatload of bats, here are the biggest drivers in a heavy seller’s market ahead of Monday’s deadline.

Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns could be an active seller at the trade deadline. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Get ready for a busy four days before the 6 p.m. ET trade deadline Monday. In what one executive calls “a crazy sellers’ market,” the prices for bats and relievers have been sky high. That could lead to a wild Monday, as the boatload of buyers, who have been waiting for prices to drop, realize sitting out the trade deadline is not an option. Swallow hard and pay up—or watch your competitors pass you by. As the market continues to evolve, here are the 10 biggest pressure points that will drive it:

1. Tarik Skubal

The Tigers should trade him. The move addresses the reality of their situation but at the cost of deflating the clubhouse and putting a pin in an unlikely run.

The Tigers are one of 993 teams to be 51–58 or worse after 109 games. How many made the playoffs? One: the 1973 New York Mets (49-60), who slipped into the playoffs with 82 wins. One in almost a thousand.

Detroit is 18th in runs per game, 12–20 in one-run games, 13–20 against lefthanders, 20–24 against winning teams, 12–18 in its past 30 games ... you get the point.

The Tigers should be taking calls on Skubal now and seeing where the auction leads. He is a difference-maker of a pitcher with one word of warning: unlike famous rentals Randy Johnson in 1998, CC Sabathia in 2008 and Justin Verlander in 2017, don’t count on him to be his own closer.

What could be his final start with the Tigers on Wednesday provided another illustration of how Skubal is the modern max-effort starter who are trained to throw 90–100 pitches. Skubal had to come out of the game mid-inning with 92 pitches as a 7–0 lead eventually became a crushing loss. He had been 33–1 with six runs of support. He has not thrown more than 96 pitches in a game this year (not entirely surprising given his midseason elbow procedure).

In 159 career games, Skubal has:

• Never thrown more than 108 pitches in a game.
• Faced only 15 batters when over 100 pitches.
• Exited two ALDS sudden death games after six innings with 84 and 99 pitches.
• A 2.96 career ERA in innings 1-6 but a 4.60 ERA in innings 7-9.

2. Brewers & Rays

Remember 2016, when Cubs president Theo Epstein paid a high price to get Aroldis Chapman and said, “If not now, when?”

Milwaukee and Tampa Bay should be asking that question when it comes to Skubal. Neither team has won a World Series. The path is open for each one this year, especially for the Rays when it comes to getting through the weak AL.

In Milwaukee, give me Jacob Misorowski and Skubal as the modern version of Johnson/Schilling and then let’s see what Milwaukee can do after going 17–29 in playoff games in the wild card era.

Or let’s see the Rays double down on their pitching wizardry. They made a play for Shohei Ohtani three years ago, so they do have that “all-in” streak in them.
The Brewers and Rays are trying to zig against the modern zag that only teams with top-five home run power win the World Series in this era. 

Padres closer Mason Miller could fetch a king’s ransom for San Diego. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

3. Mason Miller

As the game’s best closer who can impact four pennant races, Miller has the most value of any available player, Skubal included. The Padres are hanging around the wild card race, but they are 25–38 against winning teams and have the fifth-worst rotation that has provided fewer innings than every rotation but those of the White Sox and Nationals.

A trade, though, is unlikely. It’s not GM A.J. Preller’s M.O. to pivot, especially given the expectations of his loyal fan base and his veteran-heavy clubhouse. But this is a chance to be bold in a different way and pivot, even if it means attaching a big contract to Miller, such as sending Manny Machado and Miller to the Yankees.

4. A.J. Preller

See above, but consider he also could move Michael King, Ty France or Adrian Morejon. He has the chips to control the deadline but given his history he’s more likely to add than to subtract. Look for the Padres to add a left-handed bat and try to get into the postseason and through it by leaning heavily on their extraordinary bullpen and pitching chaos.

5. Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge

No one seems to really know what’s up with injuries to the defending MVPs as far as what they can do in October. Ohtani, bothered by knee and biceps soreness, is scheduled to resume throwing this weekend. Judge has not picked up a bat in two months because of a slow-healing rib fracture. His ramp to the playoffs looks shorter with each day.

The Dodgers and Yankees have more information than we do on their physical status, but as we stand today their October roles are TBD. That said, the questions should not alter the deadline plans greatly for the Dodgers and Yankees. The Dodgers have been surgical in recent deadlines (Enrique Hernandez, Michael Kopech, Tommy Edman, Brock Stewart, etc.) and with Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow on the way back they can afford to wait on Ohtani’s pitching (though never count out the Dodgers on anyone, including Skubal). The Yankees need a right-handed hitting catcher, regardless of Judge’s status.

Starting pitcher Sean Burke has done excellent work for the White Sox, but they need more rotation help to seriously contend in the postseason. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

6. The White Sox

They are trying to become the first team ever to make the postseason after three straight 100-loss seasons. Chicago has a dynamic offensive team, but by now it’s obvious the Sox need pitching and experience. I would target a veteran catcher, even after they are taking a flier on Eric Haase. The White Sox’ offense and ABS decision making from behind the plate have been awful.

This is the fifth youngest team in franchise history, the youngest in 55 years. Adding playoff-savvy arms and a backstop down the stretch should be the priority.

7. David Stearns

Most of his winter moves did not work. Now the heat is on the Mets’ president of baseball operations to salvage something from this roster. Freddy Peralta has been so bad his value has shrunk massively. (He needs so much mechanical fixing I would not bet on an acquiring club succeeding with that task in 10 starts. He doesn’t look like a Game 1-2-3 starter.) Clay Holmes and Luke Weaver should be in play. He’ll continue to listen on Francisco Lindor, but that seems too tricky to pull off as a deadline deal.

8. Atlanta Braves & Chicago Cubs

They may be shopping in the same aisle. Michael Wacha or Kevin Gausman seem about right as the rotation piece the Braves need. Holmes or Reid Detmers would be the kind of solid starter the Cubs would like to add.

9. The Mariners

They need to trade from their starting pitching depth to supplant what has been a bad offensive team. Only the Blue Jays and Guardians score fewer runs per game. Seattle is trying to move Luis Castillo to fill the need, but he doesn’t have nearly the value of Emerson Hancock, a controllable starter who is having a breakout season.

10. Bats

It’s rare to see so many teams searching for hitters. Among the bats available are Alec Burleson, Heliot Ramos, Luis Arraez, Steven Kwan, Jarren Duran, Daulton Varsho, Taylor Ward, Hunter Goodman, Luis Robert Jr., Lars Nootbaar, Lane Thomas and Jorge Soler. They mostly look like depth bats rather than impact hitters, but just remember when the 2012 Giants traded for infielder Marco Scutaro at the deadline. He hit so well for them, batting .362, he earned a new nickname: Blockbuster.

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