Mason Miller’s Tough Break Highlights a Potential Worry for the Padres

Mason Miller might have had the toughest break of the 2026 MLB season on Sunday.

The Padres’ electric closer entered the ninth inning of a matchup with the Rays with the Padres leading, 3–1. He surrendered a single to Junior Caminero, then struck out Liam Hicks before inducing a flyout from Chandler Simpson. Then Jonny DeLuca stepped to the plate and the weirdness began.

Miller got ahead 0–1 with a slider in the upper half of the zone. He then went back to the well, but left it on the inside part of the plate. DeLuca turned on it and lifted a fly ball down the left field line toward Padres outfielder Samad Taylor for what looked like a deep flyout.

Then this happened:

THE RAYS TIE IT 🤯

This baseball was in the outfielder's glove, popped out and went over the wall! pic.twitter.com/LjATQV1apO
— MLB (@MLB) August 30, 2026

Taylor secured the ball in his glove, then hit the wall, and it popped out over the fence. It was a scene reminiscent of Henry Rowengartner’s Little League botch job at the beginning of Rookie of the Year, where he picked a ball up and launched it over the fence. I had the same reaction as his friend George: “Is that play legal?”

The home run tied the game and the Rays eventually won, 5–4, in extra innings.

Miller was unlucky that his fielder didn’t secure the ball, but the batted ball data made the play even worse.

That ball had an exit velocity of 90.7 mph and a launch angle of 40 degrees. Since Statcast tracking began in 2015, there had been 390 balls to have that launch angle and come off the bat at between 90 and 91 mph. Only two were hits, and only one had left the park for a home run. That came on June 1, 2021, when Phillies infielder Ronald Treeyes took Reds starter Sonny Gray deep. This one became the second to go over the fence, thanks to a little help from Taylor’s glove. The ball had an expected batting average of .010.

It was a brutal blow for Miller, his second blown save of the season in 34 chances. It also bumped his ERA over 1.00 for the first time since July 4.

Inside Mason Miller’s back-to-back bad outings

To be fair, calling what happend on Sunday a “bad” outing for Miller is a tad harsh. He did hang the slider DeLuca hit that Taylor dropped over the fence, but that happens. Given his last two outings though, it’s worth looking at.

Entering last Tuesday, Miller had gone 73 appearances without allowing a home run. He has now surrendered them in back-to-back outings.

On August 25, he left a 98 mph changeup in the zone to Oneil Cruz, who launched it over the right field fence at 111.8 mph for a solo home run. It put Pittsburgh ahead in a game they won 1–0.

CRUZ MISSILE

Oneil Cruz lines a go-ahead home run 111.8 MPH off the bat! pic.twitter.com/AFbom56kHn
— MLB (@MLB) August 26, 2026

Miller hadn’t allowed a home run since Aug. 5, 2025.

His next outing was on Sunday, and DeLuca took him deep. Sort of.

Miller’s ERA has jumped from 0.81 to 1.26 in the past week, an astronomical bump given how he’s pitching this season.

There is a genuine question about his usage. He gave up the home run to Cruz in what was his fourth outing in five days. His fastball topped out at 101 mph in that appearance, while his season average is at 101.5 mph. On the previous night he labored through a 30-pitch inning in which he surrendered a walk while only throwing 18 strikes. It was far less efficient than he had been throughout most of the season.

The 28-year-old closer has thrown 57 1/3 innings so far in 2026, with a month to go. He’s poised to blast past the 61 2/3 innings he pitched in ’25, and will almost certainly get past the career-high of 65 he threw in ’24. Even more to the point, he has made 55 appearances, which is closing in on the career-high of 60 from last season.

Miller reached the big leagues as a starter, so he has the build to throw a lot of innings. But the most he has ever thrown is 92 2/3 at Gardner-Webb back in 2021 in his draft year.

It will be fascinating to see how his stuff holds up down the stretch as San Diego fights for a wild card spot.

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