Padres Trade for Tarik Skubal and More Bold Predictions for Rest of Season

The San Diego Padres have defied all odds in 2026, somehow entering Memorial Day with a record of 31-21 despite having a run differential of plus-6.

The Padres starting rotation was supposed to be a major concern this year, but Michael King and Randy Vásquez have been dominant while the back end has done its job.

The Padres have seen Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill undergo career-worst struggles, and yet, the rest of he offense has found ways to win games.

The bullpen was supposed to be good. It's been even better than advertised.

With June right around the corner, this felt like a perfect time for some bold predictions on how the rest of the Padres season will shake out.

1. Padres Win Tarik Skubal Sweepstakes

The Padres will be as aggressive as anyone come this year's trade deadline, especially if they continue to play as well as they have been.

President of baseball operations AJ Preller will almost certainly address the starting rotation, and there will be no better player available than Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal.

Skubal is currently working his way back from surgery to remove loose bodies in his elbow. When he returns, the Tigers will have no choice but to trade him considering they've fallen out of the playoff race and he's set to hit free agency at the end of this season.

The Padres have one of the worst-ranked farm systems in MLB. It remains to be seen if the new ownership gives them the money to sign Skubal in the offseason.

But none of that matters.

The Padres want to win a World Series, and Skubal gives them a much better chance to do that.

Preller will find a way at the deadline, and worry about the offseason later.

2. Freddy Fermin Gets Optioned Amid Struggles

The Padres had as busy a trade deadline as any team last year. Because of that, some of their moves got overshadowed.

The Padres traded right-handed pitchers Stephen Kolek and Ryan Bergert to the Kansas City Royals in exchange for catcher Freddy Fermin. While a big upgrade (and necessity) at the time, that trade hasn't exactly worked out.

Fermin is struggling mightily this season, hitting .146 with zero home runs, three RBIs and an OPS of .441. While he's been above-average defensively, the Padres can't afford a hole in their lineup given the struggles at the top.

When Luis Campusano returns, he will take over as the team's starting catcher. The team will also give Rodolfo Durán an opportunity to be his backup, while Fermin looks to get back on track in the minor leagues.

3. Nick Pivetta, Joe Musgrove Don't Return Until August

One of the major storylines throughout the Padres' 2026 season has been the injuries to the starting rotation.

Yu Darvish is out for the year, while Joe Musgrove suffered a setback in his recovery from Tommy John surgery. An April injury to Nick Pivetta only further cloudied things.

The Padres are very clearly slowplaying both Pivetta and Musgrove, as they don't want to risk any longer-term issues to two of their most important players.

Thus, neither pitcher will be back until August, as the team looks to get fully healthy in time for the stretch run.

If the Padres' plan works, they could have an August rotation that looks something like this:

Tarik Skubal, LHP
Michael King, RHP
Randy Vásquez, RHP
Nick Pivetta, RHP
Joe Musgrove, RHP

That would stack up with any among the best in MLB. They just need to stay afloat until then.

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