How a MLB Salary Cap Could Change the Padres’ Future

With organizations across baseball quietly worrying about the implications of a potential lockout, the Padres will find themselves in a position to handle it better than nearly every other team.

Oct 1, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; San Diego infielder Manny Machado (13) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (13) (right) celebrate at home plate after hitting a two-run home run in the fifth inning against the Chicago Cubs during game two of the Wildcard round for the 2025 MLB playoffs at Wrigley Field. | Matt Marton-Imagn Images

There is an impending lockout in MLB, as teams are preparing for what could be the final full season before owners and players begin negotiating a new payroll balance that includes a salary cap and a salary floor.

For some teams, this is undeniably positive. It would force the league’s cheapest owners to invest more in their rosters while preventing the richest teams from signing every top free agent, as the Dodgers and Mets have done this year.

In San Diego, however, the impact is less clear. The Padres remain one of the biggest-spending teams in baseball, yet they are still heavily outmatched by organizations like Los Angeles and New York. Currently, San Diego is placed at #6 for payroll ranks.

So would the Padres benefit from a salary floor and cap?

Yes, they would. A hypothetical cap would likely land around the $300 million mark, putting pressure on the Padres - who sit near the $270 million tax line — to be smarter with their remaining payroll. Still, the long-term benefits would outweigh the short-term limitations.

It would be worth it for San Diego to limit spending if it forces National League rivals like the Dodgers, Mets and Phillies - all of whom sit well above $300 million - to reshape their stacked rosters.

That scenario would put the Padres back in a position to become legitimate contenders.

The impact, however, wouldn’t be immediate. A new rule wouldn’t force the Dodgers to dump more than $100 million in salary overnight. Instead, transitional seasons would allow teams over the cap to move assets and gradually reduce payroll.

Jan 21, 2026; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers general manager Brandon Gomes with newly signed right fielder Kyle Tucker (23) during a press conference at Dodger Stadium. | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Even so, it would be hard not to enjoy watching teams like the Dodgers slowly lose their grip on superteam dominance.

A cap would also give San Diego a clearer path toward sustained success. Los Angeles has committed to numerous long-term deals structured around deferred money. Much of that money would come due around the same time a cap would likely be fully enforced, potentially crippling the Dodgers’ ability to compete.

With the Rockies still deep in a rebuild, and the Giants and Diamondbacks stuck between contending and retooling, the Padres could emerge as the leaders of the NL West.

Although this offseason has been difficult for Padres fans because the team's talent level has regressed, positioning the organization to enter a post-lockout landscape with roughly $30 million in flexibility could prove to be a smart long-term move.

The front office may be sacrificing the quality of this offseason in preparation for a lockout. While many owners would be frustrated by being forced either to spend more or spend less, the Padres could find themselves in a uniquely comfortable position.