The Marco Gonzales Signing Matters More Than It Seems for the Padres

The addition of starting pitcher Marco Gonzales isn’t a blockbuster deal - or even much of a headline - but it’s a crucial move that helps support a depleted pitching staff.

Ownership made it clear that general manager A.J. Preller would be operating with the same payroll this season as he did in 2025While it was encouraging that costs weren’t cut, player salaries increased, and it feels like the Padres have little flexibility to make major additions.

Before the Gonzales signing, the pitching staff had remained untouched aside from losing Dylan Cease to the Blue Jays on a seven-year, $210 million deal. That left a projected rotation of Nick Pivetta, Michael King, Joe Musgrove, Randy Vásquez and J.P. Sears. Any improvement from last season would have relied heavily on Musgrove and King staying healthy and productive.

The biggest question mark in that group was Sears. Acquired alongside Mason Miller at the trade deadline, Sears struggled after arriving in San Diego. He finished the season with a 5.04 ERA, a 5.21 FIP and a 20.1% strikeout rate across 135.2 innings.

Relying on that level of production from the staff’s primary left-handed arm isn’t ideal for a team hoping to improve on a 2025 season in which it ranked 16th in baseball with a 4.07 ERA. Gonzales may not solve that issue outright, but he gives pitching coach Ruben Niebla another lottery-ticket arm with the potential to contribute.

For Gonzales, success will hinge on health and a return to earlier form. He was a steady presence for the Mariners from 2018 to 2022, posting a 3.95 ERA and accumulating 9.5 WAR across 765.2 innings.

His peak came in 2019, when he led baseball with 34 starts and won 16 games with a 3.99 ERA. He followed that with a strong Covid season, leading the league in walk rate (0.9 per nine innings) and strikeout-to-walk ratio (9.14) while posting a 3.11 ERA.

Since 2022, Gonzales has made just 17 starts and did not pitch in 2025 while recovering from forearm flexor tendon surgery. There’s a chance he won’t be ready to perform at a high level immediately, but that risk is removed by the non-guaranteed nature of his contract. If he does look ready to compete with Sears during spring training, he’d be an affordable addition at just $1.5 million.

As for Sears, this competition could be exactly what he needs heading into 2026. While last season was a struggle, there are signs of potential improvement. Despite poor results, he finished 2025 with a 4.26 xERA and a 4.76 xFIP - still underwhelming, but notably lower than his actual outputs.

The key for Sears will be maintaining control while adjusting his pitch mix. His fastball command is solid, but at just 92.2 mph with limited movement, it can become batting practice against strong lineups.

The one positive from his metrics was his 82nd-percentile walk rate (6.2%). Preserving that while reducing fastball reliance will be critical. He threw the heater 40% of the time last season, but it produced a minus-11 run value according to Statcast.

His sweeper, however, was used just 27% of the time and generated a plus-5 run value. Look for Sears to maintain accuracy while leaning more heavily on his breaking ball.

It doesn’t matter where it comes from - the Padres need to find a way to add productive left-handed innings to their rotation. Sears alone can’t be trusted to anchor that side of the rotation, but it’s reasonable to expect at least one of Gonzales or Sears to be effective in 2026.

At the end of the day, two is better than one.