Three Ways the Padres Can Open Up Payroll Space to Sign Framber Valdez

The entirety of the Padres’ offseason has been built around speculation. Outside of a few important re-signings and the addition of Sung-Mun Song, general manager A.J. Preller has done little to improve the roster heading into 2026.

With time running out before spring training, there is still one star free agent available who fits San Diego perfectly: Framber Valdez. The issue is that the Padres have nearly reached their payroll limit for the 2026 season, and Valdez won’t come cheap.

Still, the fit is obvious. San Diego’s projected rotation features four right-handers and just one lefty, J.P. Sears, who is coming off the worst season of his career in 2025. Adding an impact southpaw at the top of the rotation would significantly raise the team’s ceiling.

In 2025, Valdez posted a 3.66 ERA and a 3.37 FIP across 192 innings for the Astros. The workhorse has thrown at least 175 innings in each of the last four seasons and owns a career ERA of 3.36. He would slot seamlessly alongside Joe Musgrove and Michael King.

The problem is cost. A pitcher of Valdez’s caliber commands more money than the Padres currently have available. So how could the front office make it work?

Trade Xander Bogaerts

The possibility of moving Bogaerts has finally opened up as player contracts continue to balloon across the league. A deal wouldn’t happen without attaching additional assets, but suddenly his $25 million AAV doesn’t look as scary with players like Bo Bichette earning more than $40 million annually.

The Yankees and Rockies stand out as potential fits. New York has the financial capacity and has struggled at shortstop with Anthony Volpe, while Colorado could explore a Kyle Freeland–centered salary swap.

Either trade would also require prospects, but if it clears most of Bogaerts’ money and allows San Diego to land Valdez, it would be worth the cost.

Trade Nick Pivetta

This option carries more downside but is more realistic. Pivetta is set to earn $20 million in 2026, with reduced salaries in 2027 and 2028.

The concern is swapping talent for talent. Pivetta was the Padres’ best pitcher in 2025, recording a 2.87 ERA and a 3.49 FIP across a team-high 181.2 innings. Valdez can match that production, but improving upon it would be difficult.

Even so, the swap still makes sense. Valdez’s left-handed arm fits the righty-heavy rotation better, and the expected metrics favor him. Pivetta posted a 3.95 xERA and a 3.85 xFIP, suggesting that regression is likely. Valdez finished with a 3.74 xERA and a 3.34 xFIP.

Take advantage of a shrinking market

This is the most optimistic path, as it avoids both a trade and an overpay - and it may also be the most realistic. Valdez wasn’t linked to San Diego early in the offseason, but the lack of suitors suggests he may need to accept a team-friendly deal.

The market for pitchers who aren’t velocity-driven has tightened, and Valdez also dealt with a controversial moment in 2025 in which he appeared to intentionally throw a fastball at his catcher after receiving a curveball sign. Both players described it as a miscommunication, and it’s unclear how much the incident has impacted his market.

Regardless, if Valdez’s price continues to drop, Preller must be ready to strike. Whether it’s a high-AAV, short-term deal ownership can approve or a lower AAV with longer commitment, Valdez would be worth the investment. The longer he remains unsigned, the cheaper he becomes - and the more realistic a Padres signing is.