Where the Padres Stand in the National League Wild-Card Race

San Diego could enter the postseason as one of the hottest teams in the MLB.

Aug 23, 2026; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. (23) is congratulated by third baseman Manny Machado (13) after hitting a solo home run during the eighth inning against the Minnesota Twins at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

After a rough stretch earlier this summer, the San Diego Padres have completely flipped the script.

The Padres are putting together a strong 2026 season as the month of September approaches. The Friars sit comfortably in the playoff picture, holding the final wild-card spot in the National League.

Entering Thursday's much needed day off, the Padres sit two games back of the fifth-seeded Philadelphia Phillies and four games back of the fourth-seeded Chicago Cubs.

However, they aren't out of the woods yet.

The Padres hold only a one-game lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks. After the Diamondbacks, the Miami Marlins are in the rearview mirror, a full four games out of the final spot in the wild-card.

In the NL West, San Diego is 8.5 games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers and unlikely to catch them in the division race.

One could argue that the Padres are one of the most dangerous teams in the league. After dealing with early-season inconsistencies and injury concerns in their pitching rotation, the Padres came out of the gates hot after the All-Star break.

The Padres went on a stretch of winning 15 out of 20 games, thrusting them into the wild-card picture.

There was an assumption that Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller would sell before the deadline. Instead, Preller reinforced the roster with key additions Robbie Ray and Casey Mize.

Not only did the outside additions help, but so did the emergence of Fernando Tatis Jr. The All-Star outfielder has heated up significantly in the second half, with 12 home runs, 32 RBIs, 30 runs scored and an OPS of 1.098.

Things have been going the Padres' way, and they appear to be getting hot as the postseason approaches.

According to FanGraphs, the Padres are projected to finish with around 86 wins. That projection has them with a 61.7% chance of clinching a wild-card spot.

On top of that, it gives the Friars a 61.8% chance to make the playoffs (in the off chance the Dodgers collapse). As far as winning the World Series goes, FanGraphs gives them a 1.8% chance to be the last team standing.

The Padres do have a relatively easy schedule, which should bode well for their playoff chances. FanGraphs has their remaining strength of schedule at .490.

San Diego has nine series left, beginning on Friday. Four of those nine come against division opponents, with their final series of the regular season against the Diamondbacks in what could very well be a posteason-like series to decide who earns the final wild-card spot.

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