Padres' Playoff Odds Soar Amid Dominant Stretch Since Trade Deadline

If Major League Baseball's playoffs started today, the San Diego Padres would be in it.

Of course, the playoffs don't start today, but that sentence couldn't be uttered for the last six-plus weeks.

On Thursday, it rings true.

The Padres have won five games in a row and 15 of their last 19 overall. Over the last few weeks, they've vaulted past six teams in the National League wild-card race, currently sitting as the No. 5 seed in the NL.

Since July 24, the Padres are an NL-best 15-4. No team in MLB has more wins than San Diego in that time frame.

On July 23, the Padres' playoff odds according to FanGraphs were a mere 7.4%. Now, they're 60.8%.

“We have come together as a ballclub, as a team, and that’s what’s needed," Fernando Tatis Jr., who scored Wednesday's game-tying run from second base on an infield single, said to reporters. "And when you’re going to sweep a team like this, it keeps boosting our confidence all the way up, so we better keep it that way.”

Pedal to the metal. pic.twitter.com/rkRR4vt5jv
— San Diego Padres (@Padres) August 12, 2026

The Padres battled all week against the Milwaukee Brewers, who entered the series with baseball's best record.

They had two one-run wins and one dominant 11-run outburst. Their pitching allowed a total of seven runs across the 29 innings.

“We always knew that we were going to be able to catch up to teams, but we had to go out there and prove it and do it ourselves to make that happen,” reliever Adrian Morejon said.

Morejon was one of many names on the current Padres roster that was mentioned in trade rumors before the deadline.

However, president of baseball operations AJ Preller wanted to push for the postseason, and he knew the best Padres roster is one that had Morejon (and others) on it.

Thus, Morejon stayed, and he has been lights-out since the deadline and the weeks leading up to it.

Since July 21, Morejon has made 11 appearances. He hasn't allowed an earned run while striking out 21. He has one save, two wins and three holds in that time.

Offensively, the Padres have gone from arguably the worst in MLB to one of the best.

Tatis is playing like a superstar. Jackson Merrill is back to being himself. Manny Machado continues to produce. And down the lineup, the Padres are getting contributions from just about everyone.

“I think a lot of it had to do with the position we were in kind of when we started this, maybe even a little bit after we’d started it,” Cronenworth said of the team's run. “Obviously, it was kind of a race to the trade deadline for us, so it put all the pressure on us to go out there and perform and let [AJ Preller] do what he does. And after that, it’s like, ‘Man, this is the group we got. Let’s go out and take it.’”

The Padres have done just that, and now have a "40-game sprint" to the finish line, as Cronenworth put it.

If they keep playing like this, they should have more than 40 games left in their 2026 season.

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