Padres Have ‘No Shot’ at Winning NL West Over Dodgers Next Season, Says Insider

Aug 24, 2025; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres relief pitcher Yuki Matsui (1) stands on the mound as Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani (17) rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images | Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

The San Diego Union-Tribune's Tom Krasovic doesn't believe the San Diego Padres have a chance to win the NL West in 2026.

Krasovic believes the Dodgers winning the division is a given before a ball has even been thrown in 2026, and is pessimistic about their chances in the future due to the Dodgers' recent dominance of the division.

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"The Dodgers, no matter how many injuries they suffer or whatever detours they take, cannot be dethroned in the annual National League West race," wrote Krasovic. "The Padres have virtually no shot at a first-round bye. Because of that burden and the expanded scope of the World Series tournament, the trophy is farther away than it may appear in the years the Padres get a playoff berth."

The Padres haven't won the NL West since 2006, but had a solid chance to do so during the regular season. The Friars even pulled ahead of the Dodgers for a brief period in the second half, but were unable to retain their lead due to an awful stretch of games.

If the Padres are to compete in the NL West next season, they have a number of issues to address in the offseason.

San Diego is set to lose several pitchers during the upcoming free agency period, and will have to hand out several big contracts if they want to retain them. Starters Nestor Cortes and Dylan Cease are out of contract after 2025, and Michael King and Robert Suarez are likely to opt out of the final years of their deals.

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The Padres had an average free agency last season, making an extremely good signing in Nick Pivetta while also signing players who were less successful, such as Connor Joe or Elias Diaz.

Pivetta signed a four-year, $55 million contract last offseason, and was easily the Padres' best starting pitcher during 2025. He posted a 2.87 ERA this season, marking the first time he had a season ERA below 4.00 in his career.

If the Padres want to remain competitive, they'll need to make more financially sound decisions, such as the signing of Pivetta. If not, the Dodgers' inflated payroll could run away with the division once again.

For more Padres news, head over to Padres on SI.