Could Jesus Luzardo Finish Ahead Of Phillies Ace In NL Cy Young Race?

The in-division acquisition for the Philadelphia Phillies may have yielded a new best pitcher on the staff.

May 20, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Jesus Luzardo (44) pitches in the fourth inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images | Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

When the Philadelphia Phillies traded for Jesús Luzardo from the Miami Marlins for prospects Starlyn Caba and Emmarion Boyd, fans of the organization thought they were getting a solid fifth starter to balance out what was projected to be an outstanding starting rotation. 

But what the Phillies may have gotten is the new best pitcher on their staff. Yes, the same staff as Zack Wheeler. Maybe. Let's talk about it. 

While Paul Skenes has been penciled in as the NL Cy Young winner, it's still a balanced race. Wheeler was identified early on as someone who could overtake the race and he's done well. But there's a real case that Luzardo could finish ahead of him. His early numbers that everyone thought would eventually fall back into reality might just be who he is on his new team. 

May 14, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Jesus Luzardo (44) pitches during the second inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images | Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

A real potential point against Skenes could end up being just how bad the Pittsburgh Pirates are. If he's not setting records every start, which, to be fair, is not off the board for the reigning finalist. But it might be hard to talk his way in.

That logic goes in reverse for winning teams. But that's immediately eliminated since both pitchers play for the same teams. That way, the numbers can be viewed more objectively. 

Building Jesus Luzardo's Cy Young Case

Luzardo's 2.15 ERA tops Wheeler's 2.42 ERA. Wheeler has more innings at 70.2 to 67. But innings can only do you so much good in the discussion once you pass a certain threshold. The gap between 150 innings pitches and 120 feels much more meaningful than the gap between 210 and 180. If Luzardo can just come close to Wheeler in that department, it may be viewed as a wash. 

WHIP also falls in favor of Wheeler at 0.88 versus 1.18 for Luzardo. 

The expected stats and underlying metrics make cases for both. According to Baseball Savant, Wheeler's xERA is 2.15 while Luzardo's is at 3.09. On the one hand, Wheeler should be doing better in actual theory. On the other hand, Wheeler's expected ERA is not even as good as the one Luzardo has in real practice. 

Nearly all of the percentile-indicators favor Wheeler with the exception of ground ball percentage (GB%), where Luzardo wins out 56% to 50%. Luzardo has the edge in run value from his breaking pitches like his sweeper and slider, both of which are firmly above the MLB-average for right-handed pitchers. Wheeler generated much more value on his fastball pitches, like his four-seamer, sinker, and cutter. 

These numbers work in practice as well considering Wheeler's 88 strikeouts compared to Luzardo's 67. 

May 23, 2025; West Sacramento, California, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler (45) throws a pitch against the Athletics during the first inning at Sutter Health Park. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Lee-Imagn Images | Dennis Lee-Imagn Images

Does Wheeler deserve to be ahead of Luzardo in the NL Cy Young race currently? Given the counting stats we have access to, absolutely. Should Philadelphia fans be surprised if that changes in a few months? Not completely, even if most of that is rooted in something as simple as ERA, which does matter at the end of the day.