Is Philadelphia Phillies Newcomer Poised for Big Rebound Season?

Will Max Kepler's impressive spring training translate to a big year for the Philadelphia Phillies?

Mar 4, 2025; Clearwater, Florida, USA; Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Max Kepler (17) hits a home run against the New York Yankees in the second inning during spring training. | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

As Max Kepler prepares for his first season with the Philadelphia Phillies, nobody knows what to expect from him this year.

That's because the 32-year-old outfielder has been wildly inconsistent throughout his career, especially since 2018. His OPS has fluctuated by an average of 100 points per year during that span and by at least 40 points every season, ranging from a low of .666 in 2022 to a high of .855 in 2019.

Just look at the last three years, when his OPS swung from .666 to .816 to .682 -- none of which are close to his career average of .746. His numbers are all over the place.

Oftentimes, drastic performance swings can be explained by changing teams or ballparks. However, Kepler spent his entire 10-year career with the Minnesota Twins before signing a one-year, $10 million deal with the Phillies this offseason.

Based on Kepler's erratic history, Philadelphia isn't sure which version of him will show up in 2025. However, there's at least one sign that he'll be able to rebound from a down 2024.

Max Kepler has had an OPS >. 950 twice in ST— 2019 (.957) & 2023 (1.094)

2019: 524 AB, .252/.336/.519, 36 HR, 90 RBI
2023: 438 AB, .260/.332/.484, 24 HR, 66 RBI

He currently has a 1.212 OPS this spring. Do with that what you will👀pic.twitter.com/2TznejXMVC

— Joseph Cammisa (@jcammisabsbl) March 6, 2025

The veteran outfielder has been raking this spring, batting .316/.435/.684 with two home runs and five RBI in eight games entering Wednesday.

While spring training statistics are often meaningless, that may not be the case for Kepler. His two best seasons -- 2019 and 2023 -- both followed his two best preseasons prior to this one.

In both cases, Kepler posted an OPS over .950 in spring training before finishing the regular season with an OPS over .800. With his OPS at 1.119 this spring, will history repeat itself?

It's certainly possible. He's joining a loaded lineup that plays in a hitter-friendly park. He's also never had back-to-back seasons with an OPS below .700, making him a good bet to bounce back from last year's .682 mark.

If Kepler's hot spring is any indication, he may turn out to be a pretty good pickup for the Phillies this year.