The most pressing questions about Phillies' top 6 starting pitchers

The most expensive team in Philadelphia Phillies history convenes in full for the first time next Monday to begin a process it hopes lasts nine months.

Every year for every club is different even when the nucleus is retained, and this one opens with a combination of hope and dread from the Phillies' fanbase.

Hope because the win total has increased in five consecutive seasons and Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Cristopher Sanchez, Zack Wheeler (eventually) and Jhoan Duran are still here, along with young X-factors like Andrew Painter and Justin Crawford.

Dread because this core has fallen short of its ultimate goal, been eliminated in the NLDS in consecutive postseasons and is mostly the same. Adolis Garcia and Justin Crawford replace Nick Castellanos and Harrison Bader but the other seven lineup spots are identical to 2023, 2024 and 2025. The rotation lost Ranger Suarez and won't have Wheeler to open the season as he rehabs and ramps up methodically from September surgery to treat thoracic outlet syndrome.

Do the Phillies have enough starting pitching?

Few, if any outlets project the Phillies to win fewer than 90 games. They'll likely be in a season-long dogfight with the Mets for the division crown, which may or may not even matter. Back-to-back seasons of 95 and 96 wins led to two NL East titles for the Phillies but only eight playoff games, six of them losses.

It's a huge year — they all are at this point in the contention cycle — and it officially starts for Phillies pitchers and catchers Wednesday in Clearwater. We'll dive deeper into each player and position group throughout spring training, but first, one pressing question about each member of the Phillies' projected Opening Day rotation, plus the most important arm of all:

Zack Wheeler: What is a realistic workload?

No determination has been made about when Wheeler will make his first regular-season start. He didn't throw a pitch after August 15 last year after a blood clot was found in his right shoulder.

Wheeler will be behind other pitchers in camp, obviously. There's no reason to rush this, especially for a 35-year-old who logged just under 1,000 innings in the last five years. It matters only a little bit if Wheeler is available in early May and an enormous amount if he's available in early October.

This will be the seventh season as a Phillie for Wheeler, one of the best free-agent signings in Philadelphia sports history. He's become a storied playoff performer, borderline future Hall of Famer and was the most advantageous piece of the Phillies' entire roster during the deepest playoff runs of this era.

He averaged 190 innings from 2021-24 and was just under 150 in 2025. It will be interesting to see how conservative the Phillies are with Wheeler during the regular season.

Cristopher Sanchez: How high can he continue to climb?

Sanchez made a massive leap in 2024 and again in '25. The National League Cy Young runner-up, Sanchez was 13-5 with a 2.50 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 202 innings last season and ranks third in the majors the last two years in ERA and innings pitched.

He's 6-foot-6, chiseled and has shown the stamina and durability to be a true No. 1 workhorse. The question with Sanchez is less about whether he can repeat his work from a year ago and more about how high his ceiling is. Would it really surprise anyone if he wins the Cy Young this season? Think about how insane this all would have sounded before June 2023.

Aaron Nola: Are the good days behind him?

Last season was concerning, there's no two ways about it. Nola made 17 starts and was unable to complete six innings in three in a row at any point. He finished with a 6.01 ERA and was trusted for only two innings against the Dodgers in his lone playoff start.

Nola is under contract through 2030. It would be catastrophic for the Phillies if last season was a sign of what's to come.

Nola's arsenal has never been based specifically around velocity but every pitcher needs it to some extent. He was often 89-91 mph with his sinker and four-seam fastball last season compared to prior averages of 92 and 93, respectively.

He's an extremely hard worker who spent no time in denial last season about his struggles. He needs a bounce-back year and the Phillies do, too. If not, the final five years of Nola's seven-year, $172 million contract will become an albatross.

Jesus Luzardo: Can the Phillies keep him?

Prices for free-agent starting pitchers are ludicrous given how few can stay healthy and deliver 180-plus quality innings. Luzardo did that last season, his first with the Phillies, for the second time in his career. He turns 29 in September and will become a free agent two months later. Given his age, velocity, breaking balls, advanced metrics and competitiveness, he'll be a hot commodity if he has another strong year. He might be in line for a contract similar to Ranger Suarez' five-year, $130M deal with the Red Sox.

There are few pitchers in baseball more incentivized to have a career year than Luzardo. The Phillies won't want to let him get away but it will be tricky.

Andrew Painter: Can he establish himself?

Painter has been a top-five pitching prospect in the minor leagues basically since he was drafted. He was the frontrunner for the Phillies' fifth starter's job in spring training 2023 before suffering an elbow injury that cost him the entirety of the 2023 and 2024 seasons.

Painter never made it up to the majors in 2025 despite the Phillies penciling him in for the late summer. He did make 26 starts, though, 22 of them at Triple A where he finished with a 5.40 ERA and allowed 10.0 hits per nine innings.

Painter is still young, 23 on April 10, but the pressure is beginning to build. He isn't just a luxury on a loaded roster anymore, now he's a crucial piece of it. The Phillies would love for him to seize a rotation spot in spring training, but if he can't, it's not out of the cards that they'd send him back to Triple A for a bit more seasoning. That would likely require signing another free-agent starter, which the Phillies need anyway. Right now, their depth is essentially Sanchez, Luzardo, Nola, Painter and the last guy on this list.

Taijuan Walker: How many times can he keep the Phils in the game?

It's really all that matters. The Phillies aren't asking Walker to pitch seven innings. They're not asking for a 3.50 ERA. They're not even asking for him to deliver a bunch of quality starts. They just need Walker to consistently get them through five innings without giving up more than three runs. Obviously, any more production would be welcomed, but the bar isn't high for a fifth starter.

Walker was horrible in 2024 but did his job last season, often under difficult circumstances shifting back and forth from rotation to bullpen. In 21 starts, he had a 4.25 ERA and the Phillies went 11-10. As a reliever, he posted a 3.15 ERA with more than a strikeout per inning.

He has been far from the pitcher the Phillies hoped they were signing for four years and $72 million back in 2023 but if Walker is just a meat-and-potatoes No. 5 starter this season, he'll get pats on the back. Issues may arise if injuries push him higher than that.