Phillies Must Extend Eflin in 2022

After the departure of Odúbel Herrera, Roman Quinn and Héctor Neris this offseason, Zach Eflin became the second-longest tenured player on the Philadelphia Phillies after Aaron Nola. He now remains one of the only players still employed by the club that shared a clubhouse with the last remaining member of the 2008 World Series team, Ryan Howard.

But Eflin is an impending free agent. If the Phillies don’t tender him a contract this year, he could end up one of the last links to the Phillies World Series past.

The start to Eflin’s Phillies career was uninspiring, but exposed flashes of a promising future. Just four starts after a debacle of a major league debut, Eflin spun his first of two complete games in 2016 on July 5. Three weeks later, Eflin improved upon his July 5 complete game, for a shutout in Pittsburgh. Between the two outings, Eflin threw only 192 pitches.

August though marked the beginning of what would come to be a regular occurrence for Eflin. He was shut down for the season after just 11 starts and a 5.54 ERA with patellar tendinopathy in both knees. He underwent a pair of surgeries to fix the issue and be ready for the start of the 2017 season.

However, 2016’s August knee-surgeries kept Eflin out past Opening Day into mid-April. Sound familiar?

However, after a promising start to 2017, Eflin struggled and finished the season with a 6.16 ERA, again making only 11 major league starts.

Beginning in 2018, Eflin became an entirely different pitcher. He still held batters to a minimal number of free passes, maintaining a walk-rate below 7% his entire career. Now, under pitching coach Rick Kranitz, Eflin began to pitch with authority.

His strikeout rate ballooned from 12.5% in 2017 to 22.5% in 2018. His homerun-rate fell too, from 5.7% to 2.9%. By July 3, Eflin had not missed a start and pitched to a 2.97 ERA. He had solidified himself as a bona fide major league starter.

Though Eflin was unable to finish 2018 strongly, his ERA was 4.36, his 3.80 FIP reflected more impressive peripherals.

That story has stayed much the same since 2018. In 2020 and 2021, Eflin outperformed his FIP, but due to bad luck and poor Phillies defense his ERA was not as remarkable.

Even though Eflin’s ERA since his “breakout” 2018 is 4.18, he’s been pitching far better than his market value suggests.

Though Eflin didn’t meet the innings pitched qualifying limit in 2021, his 6.19 K/BB would have placed third league-wide, behind only Corbin Burnes and Max Scherzer and his 3.6% walk-rate would have been the best throughout MLB.

Eflin has shown that he’s elite when it comes to outcomes he can directly control. But due to a string of bad luck, injuries, and poor Phillies defense, his contract should come cheaper than one would expect for a pitcher of his caliber.

Perhaps the greatest concern for a long-term extension is Eflin’s injury history. He’s yet to pitch a full season his entire career. In 2018, Eflin was stricken with blisters, in 2019, he dealt with back tightness and complained of a “heavy body,” demoting him to bullpen duty, in 2020, everyone’s season was cut short due to COVID and in 2021, knee injuries spelled surgery and an end to his season in July.

This history would certainly dampen any talks of contract extensions, who knows how well Eflin will age given his problematic knees. Yet, Eflin’s style of pitching does lend itself well to a post-age 30 career.

He doesn’t rely on a blazing fastball nor a high strikeout-rate. Like Jamie Moyer, Eflin’s greatest talent is his deception. His changeup is on average 8 mph slower than his fastball and his curveball is 7 mph slower than his changeup.

Mixing speeds has worked to devastating effect in Eflin’s past, there’s no reason that talent couldn’t mature with age.

Due to his injury history, the Phillies will likely shy away from a long-term Eflin extension, but a deal in the range of three years/$30 million would keep him in a Phillies uniform through his age 31 season.

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