Phillies Turnaround Has Greatly Increased Playoff Odds

The Philadelphia Phillies have gotten their season back on track.

Jun 8, 2026; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; The Philadelphia Phillies celebrate a win over the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre. | John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

There wasn’t a more disappointing team in the MLB than the Philadelphia Phillies to start the season.

A 9-19 record through 28 games cost Rob Thomson his job as manager. He was replaced by Don Mattingly on an interim basis, and the team has responded to the change, taking their performance to another level.

Since Mattingly has been at the helm, the team has gone 27-11, winning nine out of the 12 series they have played. Now with a record of 36-31 on the year, the Phillies are right back where many people thought they would be, in the National League playoff picture.

Chasing the Atlanta Braves down in the NL East race is going to be a major challenge. They are already nine games ahead and have been performing at a high level throughout the year, but Philadelphia has to be pleased with the turnaround that they have undergone.

Phillies playoff odds have improve dramatically

May 19, 2026; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies bench coach Don Mattingly (8) walks to the mound to make a pitching change during the seventh inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Citizens Bank Park. | Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

How impressive has the turnaround been? Bradford Doolittle of ESPN shared a rundown of what every team in the MLB needs to do ahead of the MLB trade deadline on Aug. 3, along with playoff and championship odds.

The Phillies have seen one of the biggest increases in playoff odds since the last time Doolittle did this. In the previous stock watch, Philadelphia had playoff odds of 45.9%; they have increased to 68.1%.

They are far from a lock to be in the postseason, but they are in a much better spot than a few weeks ago, currently holding the second wild card spot in the NL, 1.5 games behind the St. Louis Cardinals for the No. 1 wild card spot.

They do have a 1.5 game buffer in the standings, but there is plenty of work for the Phillies left to do. The Arizona Diamondbacks hold the third spot and are tied with the San Diego Padres.

Phillies in great spot after slow start

Jun 7, 2026; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies left fielder Brandon Marsh (16) celebrates win with pitcher Jonathan Bowlan (52) against the Chicago White Sox with teammates at Citizens Bank Park. | Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

That is why Philadelphia’s recent season sweep of the Padres was so important; they now hold tiebreakers over a team they will be competing against for a playoff spot.

Beyond the NL West foes, there are five more teams within four games of the Phillies in the standings. A lot can change and be shaken up with one hot or cold streak.

Oddly enough, despite their improved play and increase in playoff odds, their championship odds have actually dropped. Philadelphia had a 1.9% chance to be champions in the previous stock watch, and in the newest edition, they are down to only 1.6%.

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