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Aaron Nola Gets to Create a Brand New Narrative this October

As the Philadelphia Phillies fight for a postseason berth drags into October, Aaron Nola has the chance to put his history of late-season struggles in the rearview mirror.

Aaron Nola made five starts for the Philadelphia Phillies in September. He pitched 27.2 innings, posting a 2.93 ERA and 2.32 FIP. Except for one rain-shortened outing in Washington, he went at least six innings in each game. 

It marked the first time in Nola's career that his September ERA was lower than his ERA in the first five months of the year. It was also the first time he has ever posted an ERA below 3.50 in September. 

For years, Nola has been plagued by a narrative that he cannot perform down the stretch. It was never completely accurate – he has really only had two bad Septembers in his career – but there was a kernel of truth to it. Nola was never quite as good in September as he could be earlier in the year. 

In 2022, Nola completely busted the narrative. By ERA, this was the twelfth best month of his career. By FIP, it was number five. And by xFIP, September 2022 ranks in as the best month Nola has ever pitched. 

In his most impressive start of the month, Nola pitched six scoreless innings against the powerhouse Atlanta Braves at Truist Park. He struck out eight, allowed just four hits, and came away with the victory. 

Now, as the calendar turns to October, Nola has the chance to create a brand new narrative for himself. The 29-year-old has never pitched this late in the year before. When he takes the mound against the Houston Astros on Monday, Oct. 3, it will be the first October start of his career. 

That's largely because he joined the Phillies in 2015, three years into their postseason drought. However, even when Philadelphia has played regular season ball in October – 13 times since Nola debuted – Nola never made his way into a game. Until now. 

What kind of pitcher will Aaron Nola be in October? How will he make his first impression in the most important month of the MLB season? The narrative is in his hands. With a great start, he can begin to build a new reputation as a late-season stud. 

One start isn’t often enough to inspire a new narrative. But this will be the most important start of Nola’s career. The Phillies need one more win to secure their first postseason berth in over a decade. With Nola on the bump, they have their best chance to secure that victory. 

It's not exactly the October baseball we've been hoping for just yet, but it is high-stakes October baseball nonetheless. And if Nola is victorious, he will get the chance to continue crafting his October narrative in the postseason. 

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