How Segura's Team Option Could Net the Philadelphia Phillies a First Round Draft Pick

Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Jean Segura is having one of the best seasons of his career. Would he decline a qualifying offer?

Author:
Ben Silver
Sep 17, 2022 6:30 PM EDT

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Philadelphia Phillies

J.P. Crawford has a tremendous reputation as a defender. As he's matured into the Seattle Mariners shortstop of the future, his bat has carried along with his glove. Sporting an OPS+ above 100 since 2021, Crawford has turned into the player the Philadelphia Phillies' development staff once thought he would be.

At age-27, Crawford is entering his prime. Jean Segura on the other hand, is an aging 32-year-old second baseman, soon to leave his best years behind him. Swapped from Seattle to Philadelphia in a package including Carlos Santana, Juan Nicasio and James Pazos before the 2019 season, the two middle infielders' paths have diverged considerably.

While Crawford has grown into his role as a shortstop, Segura moved away from the position, making a smooth transition to second base, where his defense has aged better. Since switching to second base full time in 2020, Segura is worth 17 OAA.

But one thing is clear, though Crawford is on a more team friendly salary, Segura is the more complete player right now. Since joining Philadelphia, Segura has slashed .282/.338/.425 and batted everywhere up and down the lineup.

In 2022 alone he has started multiple games in every spot in the lineup but third. Segura's versatility is unmatched, his defense provides a high floor and he is a sparkplug presence in the clubhouse.

But how long will he be able to maintain his current production? The Phillies have a $17 million team option for 2023 on Segura, but averaging about three WAR a season is probably not enough to warrant executing that option.

Segura will be 33 next year, it is very rare to find middle infielders that age gracefully into their 30s, let alone their mid-30s.

With Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson, Xander Bogaerts and Carlos Correa becoming free agents this offseason, there is no shortage of middle infielders on the market to replace Segura.

Yet all of those superstar shortstops will command long-term high figure salaries. Turner may even be on the wrong side of 40 by the time his free agent contract is over. Meanwhile Bogaerts has shown an unwillingness to move away from shortstop where his defense is well below average.

Just as there are liabilities with Segura, there are concerns with the next crop of free agent shortstops too — though one positive could be that with supply so high, interest in those players will fall, and so too will their contract demands.

An unusual ploy for the Phillies could be to put the ball in Segura's court and force him to make the decision by declining his team option, and then extending him a qualifying offer. He's never tested free agency before, having signed a five-year, $70 million extension with the Mariners in 2017. The Dominican-native may wish to see what he's worth on the open market.

It's likely the value of the aforementioned qualifying offer for 2022 would be somewhere in the range of $18.5-19 million for 2022, but extending one to Segura would put the Phillies in a precarious position.

If he accepted the offer, the Phillies would have just paid him an extra $1.5-2 million for no reason. However, if he were to decline, Philadelphia would obtain a supplemental first round pick at the MLB Amateur Draft in 2023.

Is risking $1.5 million worth the chance at a first round pick? It depends on Segura's likelihood of accepting the offer.

Since coming back from injury on Aug. 4 the Phillies second baseman has slashed .299/.366/.433, good for an OPS of .799. If Segura continues that trend for the final 18 games of the season, he'll complete 2022 with an OPS in the .770 range, with an OPS+ cresting 120.

A 33-year-old second baseman on the open market with those kinds of numbers should expect a big payday. If Segura's free agent contract were to be worth less than $50 million, the Phillies compensation pick would fall after the second round of the draft. However unlikely, it is a possibility his market falls apart and he signs a short term deal, it has happened before.

The Phillies should wish for Segura to play well during this final stretch, not just because they need their club do well, but because it would make Segura all the more likely to decline a qualifying offer.