Pirates Projected to Have Winning Season
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As the 2026 Major League Baseball season draws closer, the Pittsburgh Pirates find themselves in a peculiar spot, according to the latest projections from FanGraphs. The forecasting system projects the Bucs to finish with an 82-80 record — their first winning mark in a decade — yet gives them only a 37.5% chance of ending their lengthy playoff drought.
The projections paint a picture of an improved but still crowded National League Central, where incremental gains may not be enough to secure a postseason berth.
FanGraphs' ZiPS projection system, which simulates the upcoming season a million times, has released its first projected standings for 2026. For the Pirates, the median outcome is an 82-win season, a significant 11-game improvement over their 91-loss 2025 campaign. Their probability of winning the NL Central is set at 19.9%, with a 17.6% chance of clinching a Wild Card spot, culminating in that 37.5% overall playoff likelihood.
The primary obstacle is the strength at the top of the division. The Chicago Cubs are the projected favorites with a median of 86 wins and a 44.3% chance to win the Central. Close behind are the reigning division champion Milwaukee Brewers, projected for 82.7 wins and given a 23.8% division probability. In the simulation, the Cincinnati Reds (78.5 wins) and St. Louis Cardinals (74.9 wins) trail the pack.
Acknowledged Model Challenges and a Tight Race
In its analysis, FanGraphs writer Ben Clemens explicitly notes a historical difficulty in properly rating the Brewers, who have consistently outperformed projections by building around "depth, defense, and speed," elements that are "difficult to model using public projection systems". Clemens' write-up suggests that while the model may be "too low on the Brewers, that doesn’t mean we’re too high on the Pirates."
The analysis frames the Central as "another two-team race" between the Cubs and Brewers, "unless the Pirates butt in, that is!". It credits the Pirates' offseason lineup overhaul — adding three new offensive starters — and the presence of ace Paul Skenes for the meaningful upgrade.
The Competition: Cubs' Stability and Brewers' Depth
The projected division-leading Cubs are seen as a stable, deep club. "ZiPS sees the Cubs as having a very deep rotation," with an especially strong bullpen and excellent defense backing them up. The analysis concludes the Cubs "look like a team with a win total in the low 90s".
The Brewers, meanwhile, are projected as a team with a remarkably high floor. Their lineup is considered "rock-solid almost anywhere," with league-average-or-better projections at eight of nine positions and reliable depth behind them. "Like the classic good Cardinals teams, the Brewers could win somewhere between 86 and 94 wins or so, and I wouldn’t bat an eye," wrote Dan Szymborski, creator of the ZiPS system, back in December.
A Milestone with a Caveat
For the Pirates and their fans, the 82-win projection represents tangible progress, marking FanGraphs' "most wins we’ve projected the Pirates for since 2016". However, the accompanying note carries a sobering reminder of the franchise's recent history: "They missed the playoffs that year too".
There's also the reality that the off-season is not over yet. While the Pirates have missed out on late market free agents like Eugenio Suarez, they are reportedly still in the market to add another impact bat. Adding something like a 2+ WAR player could potentially move their projected win total closer to the Cubs mark.
Ultimately, the data suggests that in the 2026 NL Central, a winning record may be an accomplishment, but a ticket to October baseball will likely require surpassing that mark by several games. The Pirates' path hinges on their new-look offense performing as hoped and their pitching, led by Skenes, delivering consistently enough to close the narrow gap with the established powers ahead of them.
Ethan Merrill is from Grand Rapids, MI, and brings with him a diverse background of experiences. After graduating from Michigan State University with a degree in journalism, he worked with the Arizona Diamondbacks for three seasons before settling in the Pittsburgh area in 2020. With a passion for sports and a growing connection to his community, Ethan brings a fresh perspective to covering the Pittsburgh Pirates.