Paul Skenes’s Struggles Can Be Traced to a Slight Windup Change

The Pirates ace hasn’t looked like himself since early June, when a mechanical shift took hold.

Paul Skenes enters Tuesday’s start with an 8.16 ERA in his last three games. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

This article was originally published as part of Verducci’s View, a weekly baseball newsletter from Sports Illustrated senior writer Tom Verducci. Every Monday, Tom empties out his notebook over email and covers MLB’s hottest topics, provides in-depth analysis through both text and video breakdowns, looks forward to what’s worth watching during the week and more. If you want to be featured in his new mailbag, please email newsletters@si.com with any questions about MLB or his decades in the sport.

Breakdown of the Week

What’s wrong with Paul Skenes? In 11 starts since June 9, he is 3–5 with a 5.28 ERA. The Pirates are 3–8 in those 11 starts.

June 9 was the day Skenes adjusted his stride to be less crossfire than ever before. Notice the difference in his feet position (more direct to the plate) and hand position (less offset) in these back-to-back starts:

MLB

He has become even more direct since June 9. By not stepping across his body as much, Skenes is releasing the baseball with 8–9” less offset (from the center line of the plate). The effect of a lesser horizontal attack angle is particularly obvious against right-handed hitters:

Skenes vs. RHH, 2026	Horizontal Release	BA	SLG
Through June 8	-2.67	.193	.307
Since	-2.18	.301	.470

For a more detailed look at what’s going on, check out the breakdown above. This graph shows how Skenes’s slump coincides with the sudden change to his stride direction and release point, which has never been this direct in his career: 

MLB

TV on TV This Week

Saturday, Aug. 15: Red Sox @ Pirates, 7 p.m. ET (Fox)

How hot were the Red Sox? Historically hot. They became the 10th team since 1900 to rip off a 30-game streak of 27–3 or better. They outscored opponents 180–84 in that run, making them only the fourth of those teams with a run differential of +96 or better.

Best Run Differential in 30-Game Span with 27+ Wins (Since 1900)

Team	Run Differential	Finish
1. 2017 Cleveland	+121	Lost ALDS
2. 1906 Cubs	+108	Lost WS
3. 1941 Yankees	+97	Won WS
4. 2026 Red Sox	+96	?
5. 1947 Yankees	+92	Won WS

In their run the Red Sox went 7–1 in one-run games (they had been 6–12) and 24–0 when they scored more than three runs.

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