Texas Rangers in ‘No Man’s Land’ Have Playoff Odds Heading in Wrong Direction

The Texas Rangers slow start has had a brutal impact on their playoff chances.

May 14, 2025; Arlington, Texas, USA; Texas Rangers pitcher Caleb Boushley (70) gets ready to pitch during the seventh inning against the Colorado Rockies at Globe Life Field. / Tim Heitman-Imagn Images

Coming into the 2025 MLB regular season, the Texas Rangers were one of the teams many people thought would be contenders in the American League.

Their roster was loaded with All-Star caliber talent. The biggest concern for the team, at the time, seemed to be whether or not they could stay healthy.

A starting rotation that included Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle, who made three starts apiece in 2024, was going to be tested right away with Jon Gray and Cody Bradford suffering injuries during spring training.

That thrust Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter into prominent roles in the rotation, putting even more pressure on the injury-prone duo atop the rotation with Nathan Eovalid.

deGrom, Mahle and Eovaldi have answered the call along with Patrick Corbin, who has been surprisingly productive after suffering the most losses, surrendering the most hits and being charged with the most earned runs in the National League over the last four years.

Where the team has suffered disappointment is with their offense, which has been shockingly poor.

Through 44 games, the team is averaging 3.50 runs per game, the fifth least in the MLB. They have a slash line of .233/.295/.375 with their only consistent contributors being shortstop Corey Seager, who is battling a balky hamstring, and emerging young star outfielder Wyatt Langford.

The lack of offensive production has had the team hovering around the .500 mark throughout the first quarter of the campaign.

What Are Texas Rangers Odds of Making the Playoffs?

Heading into play on May 15, the Rangers are 23-21, one game behind the Seattle Mariners in the tightly contested American League West, in a tie with the Houston Astros. The Athletics are only a half-game behind Texas.

The lackluster start has led to the Rangers odds of making the playoffs changing drastically.

Over at Bleacher Report, they landed in the “Coin Flips, But Leaning 'No Postseason'” tier put together by Kerry Miller.

Most outlets believe Texas has about a 50-50 shot at playing in October. FanGraphs gives them a 42.6% chance, while PECOTA has them at 62.3%.

On the opposite end of the spectrum is Baseball-Reference, where the Rangers have a 7.9% chance and are considered the fourth worst team in the AL.

A veteran-laden team with championship experience, Texas knows what it takes to win big. Can they generate enough offensive production to match the excellent performances on the mound to make up the ground?

Only time will tell, as the team has a growing concern in the bullpen to keep an eye on with Luke Jackson even before he was hit by a comebacker and Chris Martin was removed from an appearance with elbow tightness.