Why Texas Rangers Top Pitching Prospect Faces Make-or-Break Season

This Texas Rangers top pitching prospect has not yet panned out, but he has the chance to reverse his fortunes with a big 2025 season.

Sep 7, 2024; Arlington, Texas, USA; Texas Rangers starting pitcher Jack Leiter (35) pitches to the Los Angeles Angels during the first inning at Globe Life Field. | Jim Cowsert-Imagn Images

When Jack Leiter was rolling through the best lineups in college baseball with ease in 2020 and 2021 while at Vanderbilt, it was easy to dream on him as a future ace in an MLB rotation.

Leiter was frequently projected to go first overall in the 2021 MLB draft, but the Pittsburgh Pirates opted to go with Henry Davis, and the Texas Rangers scooped Leiter up with the second pick.

Nearly four years later, Leiter has yet to put together a dominant season at any professional level, and his first taste of the Major Leagues was a disaster in 2024, as he surrendered 35 earned runs in 35.2 innings pitched.

For those reasons, Bleacher Report's Joel Reuter included the talented pitcher on a list of seven former top prospects who are entering make-or-break seasons in 2025.

"He finally turned a corner last season with a 3.51 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 110-to-35 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 77 innings at Triple-A," Reuter wrote. "But that success did not carry over to the majors. He struggled in three spot starts prior to the All-Star break and failed to gain much traction over the final month-plus on the active roster."

Leiter faces an uphill battle in Spring Training to earn a spot in the Rangers' starting rotation, as the club has Nathan Eovaldi, Jacob deGrom, Jon Gray and Tyler Mahle penciled into the first four spots. The fifth is open, but Cody Bradford seems to have the edge for now, with Leiter's former Vanderbilt teammate Kumar Rocker also in contention for the job.

Digging into MLB's Baseball Savant data that is available for Leiter's limited appearances paints a picture that shows why Leiter was so well-regarded in the first place.

Despite his short stature, Leiter possesses an excellent fastball due to his ability to create deception via extension. He ranks in the 86th percentile in fastball velocity and in the 84th in extension. Despite that, his-four seam offering got hit at a .350 batting average against rate.

His curveball, on the other hand, induced a .118 average from opposing hitters with a 38.7% whiff rate while spinning at an average of 2,622 revolutions per minute. Leiter only threw his breaking ball 11.4% of the time, so perhaps the key to improving his results lies simply in upping that usage.

Whether the key is tweaking the fastball to avoid hard contact or tinkering with his usage rates, Leiter unlocking a new level would be a huge plus for a Rangers team looking to return to the playoffs. He's too young to write off completely with another poor year, but the clock is ticking on his outlook as a franchise altering cornerstone.