Can Rangers Keep Merrill Kelly at This Projected Free Agency Cost?

The Texas Rangers spent three Top 15 prospects to trade for Merrill Kelly. Now, they must compete with the rest of baseball to keep him.

Texas Rangers pitcher Merrill Kelly throws a pitch against the Milwaukee Brewers at Globe Life Field. | Jim Cowsert-Imagn Images

The Texas Rangers felt they needed more starting pitching at the trade deadline and secured Merrill Kelly from the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Texas knew he was a short-term solution. He would be a free agent this offseason, but the Rangers hoped the 36-year-old starter could help them get over the finish line and reach the playoffs. The price was steep. Texas gave up three Top 15 pitching prospects — left-hander Kohl Drake, left-hander Mitch Bratt and right-hander David Hagaman.

Kelly gave the Rangers 10 starts. He went 3-3 with a 4.23 ERA in 10 starts with Texas, which included 46 strikeouts and 10 walks in 55.1 innings. For the season, he had a 12-8 record, combined with his time with Arizona.

Texas knows Kelly well. The Rangers faced him in the World Series in 2023. Kelly will get attention in free agency as a solid veteran who can work as a third or fourth starter in a rotation. If Texas wants to re-sign him, there is a market. But the price could be steep.

The Cost to Keep Merrill Kelly

Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

At least three different baseball insiders have put together their Top 50 free agents this offseason, with Kelly included. Baseball America (subscription required) ranked him at No. 31, ESPN ranked him at No. 22 and No. 25 by MLB Trade Rumors. All three sites believe he will sign a two-year deal. Here are the projected numbers:

MLB Trade Rumors: Two years, $36 million, $18 million average annual value;

ESPN: Two years, $35 million, $17.5 million average annual value;

Baseball America: Two years, $40 million, $20 million average annual value.

The Rangers, financially speaking, are trying to cut payroll. Kelly, who is entering his age 37 season, would run counter to that desire. The Rangers appear to have their top three starters for 2026 on paper in Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Jack Leiter. But, if the Rangers need to trim payroll, deGrom or Eovaldl could be moved.

If Texas keeps all three, then the rest of the rotation ends up being some combination of Kumar Rocker, Cody Bradford, Jacob Latz and Jose Corniell, based on what is on the 40-man roster. Texas has done a good job in recent years of finding starters on one- or two-year deals that provide the rotation some backbone. But Kelly would be an expensive bet that runs against the Rangers’ stated goals this offseason — unless they cut payroll elsewhere.

Kelly is 62-50 for his career with a 3.77 ERA. He’s been durable throughout his career with the exception of 13 games in 2024. It’s the kind of bet the Rangers would normally be willing to make, if the money wasn’t a problem.