Projection Systems Disagree on How Texas Rangers Will Perform This Season

Projection systems have had a hard time finding common ground on how the Texas Rangers will perform in 2025.

Aug 29, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Texas Rangers shortstop Corey Seager (5) celebrates with teammates after the game against the Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field. | Matt Marton-Imagn Images

The Texas Rangers were on top of the world after winning the final MLB game of the 2023 season, bringing home the franchise's first World Series Championship.

Things came crashing down in 2024 with the Rangers playing to only a 78-84 record, missing out on the playoffs completely.

It has been a somewhat active winter in Arlington with the additions of Joc Pederson and Jake Burger for the offense, while adding a plethora of arms in the bullpen. The club hopes to see a much cleaner bill of health in the coming year, too.

Projection systems have still had a hard time coming to an agreement for how this club will fare, however, with PECOTA giving Texas a 76.5% chance of making the playoffs and Fangraphs putting their chances at only 59%. It represents a 17.5-point difference, the sixth-largest in MLB.

"Both FanGraphs and PECOTA give Texas the shortest playoff odds in the AL West," wrote Thomas Harrigan of MLB.com, "but there’s a large disparity between the two sites in terms of the actual figure. While PECOTA projects the Rangers to be more than two games better than the Astros and Mariners, FanGraphs groups the three clubs more closely together."

The American League West is much more wide open than it has been for the better part of the last decade as the Houston Astros have taken a massive step back from their dynastic ways that have wreaked havoc over MLB since 2017.

While the Seattle Mariners' pitching staff is one of the best in the sport, their offense is on the complete opposite spectrum as one of the worst.

The Mariners' star player, Julio Rodriguez, is a defensive wizard in center field, but at the plate, he has regressed year-over-year every season since his debut, and they have no one else who can challenge him for top-billing in their lineup.

On the other hand, the Rangers now hold one of the deepest lineups in the AL West, and assuming they all stay healthy, it could be one of the best offenses in the sport.

The rotation is a massive question mark, as only one starter is under the age of 30, and Jacob deGrom continues to miss starts due to injury. But if they, too, can all stay healthy, it can be a solid unit.

The AL West is more up for grabs than it has been in years, and it is not an insane assumption to think Texas can be the one to claim the throne in 2025.