Bold Orioles Free Agency Prediction Is Bad News for Already Underwhelming Rays Lineup

The Tampa Bay Rays are certainly hoping that a bold free agency prediction for the Baltimore Orioles doesn't happen.

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The Tampa Bay Rays are in a tough spot heading into the MLB offseason as a member of the American League East.

They are always operating at a disadvantage because of the disparity that they have compared to their rivals in spending power. That is expected to be even more evident this winter, with reports that the Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays are all looking to spend money to upgrade their rosters.

The Rays have areas on their roster they would like to upgrade, but they aren’t going to be spending at the top of the free agent market to address them. They would love to add Kyle Tucker to fix their outfield woes, but that doesn’t look to be in the cards.

Orioles predicted to sign Dylan Cease

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Unfortunately, their rivals, who have weaknesses to address, do have the capabilities to target high-end free agents. And that is exactly what the Orioles have been predicted to do by Tim Kelly of Bleacher Report.

Contract and landing spot predictions have been shared for the top 25 MLB free agents. Coming in at No. 9 on the list is starting pitcher Dylan Cease, who is expected to join Baltimore’s rotation.

The veteran right-hander has been predicted to land a massive five-year contract worth $125 million that includes a player opt-out after the 2028 campaign.

At first glance, his numbers don’t look too spectacular. He had a 4.55 ERA across 32 starts and 168 innings with the San Diego Padres in 2025, compiling an 8-12 record.

However, when taking a deeper dive into his statistics and performance, that ERA may not tell the whole story. He had an expected ERA of 3.46 and FIP of 3.56, which suggests that there was some bad luck in his raw production. 

Dylan Cease would be major obstacle for Rays lineup to overcome

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An impressive 215 strikeouts were also recorded, leading to an MLB-high 11.5 K/9 ratio. With five consecutive campaigns of 165+ innings pitched and two top-five Cy Young finishes, Cease would be a nice addition to any starting lineup.

For Tampa Bay, it would certainly be discouraging to see the Orioles upgrade arguably the least productive part of their roster in this fashion. Baltimore finished in last place in the AL East in 2025, but adding a player of Cease’s caliber would certainly raise their floor and ceiling.

With Trevor Rogers emerging this past season, Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells returning from injury and Dean Kremer providing depth, what was once considered a weakness could become a strength for the Orioles if they can add an anchor like Cease.

The Rays’ offense already struggled to consistently produce last season. Having to potentially face off against a front-end starter as talented as Cease for the foreseeable future would make things even more difficult.