Breaking Down Rays' Chances of Winning 2026 MLB Draft Lottery

What are the chances that the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 MLB Draft Lottery?

Dec 10, 2024; Dallas, TX, USA; A general view of the set of the MLB Draft Lottery at the Hilton Anatole during the 2024 MLB Winter Meetings. | Tim Heitman-Imagn Images

With the winter meetings in full swing for the Tampa Bay Rays, the franchise will also have their eyes on the ping pong balls Wednesday night during the MLB Draft Lottery. 

It is undoubtedly a busy time of year for the Rays, who have been active early on during the offseason. This is a team that is hoping to get better for 2026, and so far, they have been making some moves in order to try to do so. 

Firstly, with a need to increase offensive production in the outfield, the team signed both Jake Fraley and Cedric Mullins to help in that department. Both of these players have the ability to support the offense, and this was undoubtedly a unit that needed it.

Furthermore, the team reportedly signed left-handed veteran Steve Matz to a multi-year deal. After letting Pete Fairbanks go to free agency by declining the team option on his contract, the team figured to look to add another arm to the bullpen to replace him. Despite being a starter most of his career, the southpaw recently made the switch to the bullpen, and the results have been good. 

Even though the winter meetings are in full swing, the MLB Draft Lottery will be taking place on Wednesday night, and the Rays will be hopeful to come away with a high pick. 

What are the Rays’ Chances of Winning?

Kim Klement-Imagn Images

Coming into Wednesday night, Tampa Bay has a 3.03% chance of getting the number one pick. Those odds rank them seventh of the eligible teams for the lottery, meaning that they will have a chance. The Chicago White Sox currently hold the highest odds of getting the first pick at 27.73%. Furthermore, the Minnesota Twins also have a great chance at 22.18%. 

Even though the odds might not be in their favor, it is certainly possible for the Rays to get the first overall pick or at least be in a strong position to make a significant addition. It hasn’t been since 2008 since the Rays held the first pick in the MLB Draft, and that was the year they drafted Tim Beckham. However, the year prior was the impact of the addition of David Price with the first overall pick. 

If things stand where they are and Tampa Bay drafts seventh, where their odds say they should be, it will be the highest selection in the first since 2017. Also. it would be their first time in the Top 10 since then as well.