Breaking Down Whether or Not Rays Can Contend in Challenging AL East

Can the Tampa Bay Rays compete in the American League East?

Aug 26, 2025; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Tampa Bay Rays manager Kevin Cash (16) stands in the dugout in the first inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field. | David Richard-Imagn Images

With spring training games set to start in a few days for the Tampa Bay Rays, the team will be excited to get on the field for the 2026 campaign. However, the expectations for the franchise this year could be a bit low. 

This offseason, the Rays were one of the busiest teams in all of baseball, both in free agency and the trade market. The franchise made a couple of notable cost-saving decisions to trade both Brandon Lowe and Shane Baz to restock the farm system, while also declining a team option on closer Pete Fairbanks. 

These moves didn’t help the team for 2026, but a couple of additions in free agency might. A goal of the team this winter was to improve their starting rotation and outfield. That seemed to be the main focus in free agency with the additions of Cedric Mullins, Jake Fraley, Nick Martinez, and Steven Matz. However, despite these additions, the Rays still might be looking up in the division. 

Following missing the playoffs the last two years, that is undoubtedly their goal to snap that streak. However, it won’t be easy.

Jared Greenspan of MLB recently wrote about why the Rays could have a tough time making the playoffs with the American League East being loaded. 

Tampa Bay Behind in Preseason Projections

Tampa Bay Rays designated hitter Jonathan Aranda | Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images

While projections are never perfect in any sport, they do give a good early indication of where things are going. According to FanGraphs, the Rays have the lowest projected team WAR, and that lines up with how the offseason went for the division. 

Currently, the Toronto Blue Jays, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, and Baltimore Orioles are all ranked ahead of them in the WAR projections, and these four teams are seen as four of the top nine in all of baseball. 

While that could spell doom and gloom for Tampa Bay, they are ranked a respectable 17th in the projections. Even though the rest of the division might be loaded, they could certainly contend based on the projections. 

What is going to be a concerning trend for the Rays is the spending discrepancy between them and the rest of the division. While Tampa Bay can be savvy and make minor moves that work out, each one of their division foes spent a lot of money this winter. The Rays aren’t in a position to do that yet with new ownership, and it could result in an uphill climb in 2026.