Rays Prospect Having Alarming Struggles at Plate in Arizona Fall League
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The Tampa Bay Rays sent a lot of players to the Arizona Fall League this year. A lot of attention has been paid to some of their higher-rated prospects, such as outfielder Aidan Smith.
Acquired from the Seattle Mariners as part of the return package for Randy Arozarena, the 20-year-old is more than holding his own at the Arizona Fall League. He has a .280/.357/.360 slash line in 28 plate appearances, continuing to take steps in his development.
Alas, some of his teammates aren’t having as positive an impact on the field. One player who is struggling in particular is Brailer Guerreo.
Expectations have been sky high for the talented outfielder since he signed for $3.7 million out of the Dominican Republic in 2023. He was viewed as a top-five international prospect in that class, but has been incapable of staying on the field.
In 2023, he played only seven games in the Dominican Summer League before needing season-ending surgery on his shoulder. In 2024, it was shoulder issues that once again forced him off the field, allowing him to play in only 28 games at the Rookie-level Florida Complex League.
This year, he was able to appear in 51 games, with 50 of them coming at Single-A Charleston. The tools and promise were on display with a .251/.341/.403 slash line in those 50 games and 220 plate appearances.
Guerrero had six home runs, seven doubles and two triples, adding 33 RBI and nine stolen bases. He possesses tantalizing tools; the only thing he needs is more experience to continue his development.
Brailer Guerrero struggling mightily in Arizona Fall League
That is a big reason why he is participating in the Arizona Fall League: to gain in-game reps and experience. However, the results have been disastrous to this point.
In a hitter-friendly environment, Guerrero is struggling mightily at the plate. In 29 plate appearances, he has only two hits, neither of which has gone for extra bases.
The most alarming thing about his performance is the number of times he has struck out. He has gone down on strikes 16 times already. As Keith Law of The Athletic (subscription required) noted, Guerrero looks physically bigger, but his ability to discern what is a strike and a ball has deteriorated.
Despite not playing since last Tuesday, Oct. 21, he still has the sixth most strikeouts of any player in the Arizona Fall League this year. Every other player ahead of him has taken at least 34 plate appearances.
Currently the No. 9-ranked player in the Rays’ organization, he has all of the tools and physical makeup to shoot up prospect rankings. But his performance at the AFL and inability to stay healthy certainly aren’t helping his case.
Armed with elite bat speed and big-time power potential, experience could be all that he needs to start figuring things out. The only way to gain that experience is to get healthy, as the No. 1 goal for Tampa Bay this winter has to be identifying the source of his injuries and figuring out a way to keep him on the field.
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Kenneth Teape is an alumnus of SUNY Old Westbury and graduated in 2013 with an Honors Degree in Media Communications with a focus on print journalism. During his time at Old Westbury, he worked for the school newspaper and several online publications, such as Knicks Now, the official website of the New York Knicks, and a self-made website with fellow students, Gotham City Sports News. Kenneth has also been a site expert at Empire Writes Back, Musket Fire, and Lake Show Life within the FanSided Network. He was a contributor to HoopsHabit, with work featured on Bleacher Report and Yardbarker. Previously, he is a reporter for both NBA Analysis Network and NFL Analysis Network, as well as a writer and editor for Packers Coverage. You can follow him on X, formerly Twitter, @teapester725, or reach him via email at teapester725@gmail.com.