Rays Prospect's Slump Is Misleading and Won't Continue for This Reason
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Just a year ago, the FanGraphs top-10 prospect rankings for the Tampa Bay Rays featured names that fans envision as the foundation of the franchise.
Carson Williams, Chandler Simpson, and Brody Hopkins were the obvious highlights, but further down at number seven is a name that seems strangely out of place now.
Not too long ago, Brayden Taylor had it all going for him. A first-round pick in 2023, he blossomed into a top 100 prospect after a dazzling 2024 campaign in High-A. It seemed almost certain Taylor would find his way onto an infield costarring with Junior Caminero and Williams.
Fast forward one year, and it’s as if the baseball world has forgotten him. One disastrous year can do that in a prospect landscape that’s constantly weeding out talent as they progress to harder levels. Taylor’s season last year was perhaps the standout example in regression for a Tampa Bay system that had its share of developmental setbacks.
Brayden Taylor suffered from brutal luck in 2025
Taylor excelled in 2024 with a simple, high-lift launch-angle approach and a great sense of the strike zone, but it simply wasn’t taking off at the Double-A level.
What made the drop in performance so confounding was the lack of an obvious issue. There was no spike in strikeouts, no adjustments to batting mechanics, or a reported injury.
Taylor approached last year just as he did his standout 2024, only he just wasn’t finding any rhythm or luck at the plate. Hard-hit balls found their way into gloves. Line drives turned into outs. Over time, it started to affect Taylor’s mental side of the game.
In an interview with Fangraphs, Taylor delved into the reasons behind his 2025 slump.
“I was making outs, but I was in the right ballpark. Then I kind of started searching for things that I didn’t need to search for. That’s when I started getting out of whack, out of sequence.”
Bad luck wore on Brayden Taylor mentally
BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is not an all-encompassing stat, yet it clues us into the metrics beyond counting stats by showing if hitters are seeing their contact fall for hits or outs.
Taylor didn’t just get mildly unlucky when he squared up the ball, but sported the Southern League's lowest BABIP at .229 among all qualified hitters. That unfortunate BABIP went along with almost identical walk and strikeout rates to his stellar 2024 High A showing.
All of that is great news in a way. It shows that almost nothing actually changed about Taylor’s approach to hitting.
Scarier issues would be a complete lack of plate discipline or a power outage, yet his walk rate remained above average at 14%, and his steep launch angle approach keeps his power outlook hopeful. The only difference between the successful and flop versions of Taylor was where his balls landed, and those numbers always tend to return to the median.
If anything, Taylor expressed gratitude following the toughest year of his career.
Brayden Taylor - TCU -> Rays 1st round pick
— Trey Hannam (@TJHannam10) September 8, 2023
- One of my favorite bats in the '23 draft 🔥
- Ready early + controlled ✅
- Lighting quick bat ⚡
- Ability to drive the ball all over the park ✅ pic.twitter.com/I095Lh2iZF
“It is very apparent that I didn’t have the year I wanted to,” he said. “But I’m also grateful to have had it, because I would rather go through some changes and learn how to deal with the failure.”
Baseball requires mental toughness to a greater extent than any other results-based sport. If Taylor can use lessons from last year to become a better player, there’s a good possibility he will come back stronger than ever.
We got a sneak peek of what that mentally tough Taylor looked like as he put his forgettable minor league season behind him and went to the Arizona Fall League. There he slashed a more improved .262/.400/.472, reminding prospect evaluators that this is a first-rounder with a lot left to prove.
In an age of social media and short attention spans, the next best breakout prospect is always going to take up headlines. A linear ascent to the majors is ideal for every player, though it’s not the norm in baseball.
Taylor’s 2025 season was a case in reminding us that players are going to take steps back. But the way Taylor has responded in both interviews and AFL play feels like a turning point in the right direction for the not-too-long-ago top 100 talent.
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Sam Hougham is an alumnus of UC Santa Barbara, who earned his degree in Communication. He is a passionate baseball writer and researcher who began his career at Diamond Digest, a platform for up-and-coming voices in baseball writing. Since then, he has launched his own website, The Daily Lineup Card, where he publishes long-form analytical pieces focused on scouting, drafting, and team analysis. A lifelong Tampa Bay Rays fan, Sam’s other sports interests include Aston Villa FC and the English Premier League, the NHL, and the NFL. You can follow him on X, @samuelhougham, or reach him via email at samhougham791@gmail.com.