Rays Star Pitcher Projected for Incredibly Productive Return to Mound

The Tampa Bay Rays are going to be pleasantly surprised by the projections for one of their pitchers.

Mar 1, 2025; Port Charlotte, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Shane McClanahan (18) throws a pitch against the New York Mets in the first inning during spring training at Charlotte Sports Park. | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

The Tampa Bay Rays' pitching staff is going to look a lot different in 2026 than it did at the end of the 2025 campaign.

Closer Pete Fairbanks had his club option declined, which made him a free agent. Starting pitcher Adrian Hauser, who was the only Major League free agent entering the winter, signed a deal with the San Francisco Giants.

The Rays also made a move involving starting pitcher Shane Baz. He was dealt to the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for a massive haul of prospects and a draft pick.

One player who will be stepping into a role to help replace what was lost this winter is veteran Steven Matz, who signed a two-year deal in free agency. Another player people will be keeping a close eye on is Shane McClanahan.

Shane McClanahan set to return to Rays

Aug 2, 2023; Bronx, New York, USA; Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Shane McClanahan (18) reacts during the fourth inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. | Brad Penner-Imagn Images

The two-time All-Star was anchoring the Tampa Bay staff as its ace prior to going down with injuries. Aug. 2, 2023, was the last time that the talented lefty took a Major League mound. He underwent Tommy John surgery and battled a nerve issue in his left triceps.

Healthy heading into spring training this year, he is expected to make his much-anticipated return to the rotation for the Rays. Based on his previous results, he can make a significant impact, eventually returning to the front of the staff.

Alas, it is anyone’s guess what McClanahan can offer Tampa Bay this season. What will his workload be after spending so much time sidelined? Will he get close to the level he was at previously?

The Rays will be thrilled with whatever production they can get out of their former ace. However, projections are very favorable, according to Steamer projections hosted by FanGraphs, as shared by David Adler of MLB.com.

Shane McClanahan projected for impressive bounce back

Jul 28, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Shane McClanahan (18) delivers a pitch during the first inning against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park. | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

McClanahan is projected to make 24 starts and throw 142.1 innings while recording an impressive 3.57 ERA to go along with 154 strikeouts.

There are a ton of questions surrounding him and his durability, but a season of that magnitude would put a lot of doubts to rest. No one doubts that he has the talent to produce with an 8.8 bWAR in his first 74 career starts with a 3.02 ERA across 404.2 innings.

McClanahan is still in the prime of his career, turning 29 years old in April. If he can produce anywhere near the level that Steamer and FanGraphs believe possible, he will provide Tampa Bay with an overwhelming amount of value in 2026.