Predicting Red Sox's Blockbuster Trade Package For 8-Time All-Star Nolan Arenado

If this deal happens, what's it going to take?

Sep 16, 2024; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado (28) fields a ground ball against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the first inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-Imagn Images | Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

If the Boston Red Sox are going to trade for anyone before Opening Day, Nolan Arenado of the St. Louis Cardinals feels like the odds-on favorite.

All winter, the Red Sox have been speculated as an Arenado destination. Boston is on the list of teams he'd reportedly accept a trade to, and that's important, considering he already used his no-trade clause to nix a move to the Houston Astros in December.

One day, Arenado will take his rightful place in the Baseball Hall of Fame. He's the greatest defensive third baseman of his generation and he's been one of the sport's best hitters at his peak, too. But the Red Sox aren't concerned with past performance.

Arenado has dropped off at the plate in each of the last two seasons, and entering his age-34 campaign, it's reasonable to wonder if he's in decline. Three years and $74 million remain on his contract, $64 million of which the Cardinals are currently responsible for, so the money is a deterrent as well.

What would it realistically take, then, for the Red Sox to trade for Arenado? No one knows for sure until it happens, but here is an educated guess:

Red Sox receive: 3B Nolan Arenado, $15 million in cash considerations

Cardinals receive: 3B/1B Blaze Jordan, RHP Dalvinson Reyes

Jordan has been a name the Cardinals have discussed with the Red Sox, according to MLB.com's John Denton. But deals like these often seem to include wild cards, so let's go with the 18-year-old Reyes, who didn't allow a run in his five-inning rookie ball debut last season.

Meanwhile, the money is the main thing to consider. Denton reported that the Cardinals balked at sending the Red Sox $20 million earlier this offseason, so let's assume the two sides settle on $15 million.

That would give the Red Sox veteran leadership and excellent defense for approximately $16 million a year, which is a reasonable gamble to take. There are always reasons for either side to object, but this has the makings of a trade framework that could get the deal done.

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