Red Sox Can't Lose Alex Bregman If Latest 5-Year Projection Proves Accurate

If only we knew what it would actually cost...

Sep 19, 2025; Tampa, Florida, USA; Boston Red Sox third base Alex Bregman (2) hits a home run during the third inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images | Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

Alex Bregman meant a lot to the Boston Red Sox in his first season, both on the field and as a mentor/extra coach in the dugout.

Bregman started out red-hot and slumped hard down the stretch, but he also deserves from grace for a rocky second half because he came back quickly from a quad strain. But what should the Red Sox be willing to pay to keep him?

On Thursday, Bleacher Report's Joel Reuter made a new projection for Bregman's contract based on past deals and where the market seems to be heading.

New Bregman contract projection is reasonable

Sep 7, 2025; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Boston Red Sox third baseman Alex Bregman against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Reuter's price for Bregman was one the Red Sox should not hesitate to pay: five years, $75 million.

"It has already been reported that (Bregman) plans to opt-out of the final two years and $80 million that deal, and while he might not find that same AAV (average annual value) over a long-term contract, something close is not out of the question given his long track record of production and 102 games worth of playoff experience," Reuter wrote.

"A $35 million AAV would match the figure that Anthony Rendon received from the Angels, and for a player who has piled up 43.1 WAR over 10 seasons in the big leagues, it's a reasonable ask over a five-year contract."

If $175 million is indeed the final cost to land Bregman, the Red Sox will look awful if they let him walk. It's a price they could pay comfortably, especially given the $254.5 million they saved when trading Rafael Devers (which was an indirect result of the Bregman signing).

Sadly for Boston, there's no way of knowing yet what it will actually cost to make sure Bregman stays in town. All anyone outside the negotiations can do is make projections, which is all Reuter is doing here. But to be fair, his educated guess seems like a good one.

We know Bregman turned down six years, $171.5 million from the Detroit Tigers last offseason. Upping the AAV and slightly upping the total value despite another year of mileage could be a result of the qualifying offer no longer being attached, plus the Red Sox spending more to keep a player they know they love.

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