Red Sox's Updated Magic Number, Playoff Odds After Chaotic Day Across AL

Just gotta keep winning

Sep 20, 2025; Tampa, Florida, USA; Boston Red Sox shortstop Trevor Story (10) catches Tampa Bay Rays left fielder Jake Mangum (28) in a run down in the eighth inning at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Did the Boston Red Sox gain ground or lose ground in the playoff race on Saturday? There's really no right answer.

What the Red Sox did, however, was take care of business. Boston picked up a crucial 6-3 win over the Tampa Bay Rays, taking the lead in the late innings for the second consecutive night on yet another clutch swing of the bat from shortstop Trevor Story.

However, Boston started the day with a 1 1/2-game cushion over the first team outside the playoff picture, and thanks to the Cleveland Guardians' doubleheader sweep of the Minnesota Twins, that cushion is down to just one game.

Red Sox's updated playoff odds, magic number

Sep 20, 2025; Tampa, Florida, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Kyle Harrison (38) throws a pitch against the Tampa Bay Rays in the first inning at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Boston (85-70) entered the day with a playoff magic number of six, and it could have dropped as low as four, had the Guardians (84-71) lost both of their games. But the Guardians seemingly don't lose anymore -- they've won nine in a row, and 15 of 16 since the series finale against the Red Sox on Sept. 3.

So the new magic number is six, but it's not just the Guardians they're trying to stay ahead of anymore. The Houston Astros are 84-71 as well, and the Red Sox own the tiebreaker over both teams. With seven games to play, Boston has to prevent both teams from outpacing them by two wins or more.

There's another new pathway opening up as well. The Detroit Tigers (85-70) are floundering, having lost eight of their last nine, and they're only one game up on Cleveland themselves. Boston finishes the regular season with a matchup against the Tigers, and before that series, the Guardians and Tigers face off in a series that could determine the AL Central.

Entering the series finale against the Rays on Sunday, the Red Sox's playoff odds sit at 89.5%, per Fangraphs, up just 1% from the previous day. Those odds are higher, however, than Detroit (86.2%), Houston (64.4%), and Cleveland (60.6%).

Nothing is guaranteed, at this point, but if the Red Sox keep taking things one day at a time, the finish line will come into view soon enough.

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