Red Sox's Veteran Leader Gets Alarming Projection For Upcoming Season

How much of Boston's success depends on TS10?

Aug 26, 2025; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Boston Red Sox shortstop Trevor Story (10) throws to first base during the ninth inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: James A. Pittman-Imagn Images | James A. Pittman-Imagn Images

Somehow, in the midst of all the injuries the Boston Red Sox dealt with last season, shortstop Trevor Story stayed healthy.

Story played 163 games in his first three years as a Red Sox, then played 157 this past year. He led the team in home runs, RBIs, and stolen bases. His defense tailed off in September, but he was also leading the charge on offense by the time the Sox got to the playoffs.

Entering his age-33 season, Story has been vehemently endorsed as the starting shortstop by the Red Sox organization, specifically chief baseball officer Craig Breslow. Are the Red Sox counting too heavily on the veteran repeating his production from a year ago?

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Story coming back to earth this season?

On Thursday, MLB.com published a "snapshot" of the Red Sox's Fangraphs projections for this season, and the No. 1 thing that stood out from the list was Story and the Boston shortstop group being projected for 2.0 WAR, which ranked 27th out of the 30 teams in baseball.

"This projection and ranking might be a bit surprising, considering that Trevor Story had a resurgent 2025 season with a .741 OPS, 25 home runs, and 31 stolen bases and finished with 3.0 WAR,18th-best among shortstops," wrote MLB.com's Brent Maguire.

"Projection systems, however, are notoriously conservative and are looking beyond just the previous season. Story was oft-injured and unproductive during his first three years with the Red Sox before 2025 and with him entering his age-33 season, there are still some questions about his production in 2026."

Certainly, one projection does not mean Story is doomed to have a bad year, and if anything, he might have a better defensive season if he stays healthy, because he'll be better conditioned for those final weeks of the year.

However, this underscores the need for the Red Sox to land another big bat, and ideally, two. The odds that Story leads the team in all of those offensive categories again feel slim, and even if he does, that likely means Boston's offense was fairly pedestrian.

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