Why It’s Too Soon To Rule Out Lucas Giolito With Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox have been fortunate to have Lucas Giolito taking the mound consistently for the organization this season.

Giolito was a big-ticket free agent pickup for the Red Sox before the 2024 season but he missed the entire campaign. He missed a little bit of time to begin the 2025 season, but has made 26 starts this season and has been integral to the team's success. Giolito has a 3.41 ERA and 121-to-56 strikeout-to-walk ratio in arguably his best season since 2019. The 2019 campaign was Giolito's lone All-Star campaign. That season, Giolito made 29 starts and had a 3.41 ERA in 176 2/3 innings pitched.

Giolito's 3.41 ERA this season is his best ERA since that 2019 campaign. The thing that is important to note is that his future is up in the air for Boston. Giolito has pitched 145 innings this year. If he reached 140 or more innings pitched, it changed his contract to a $19 million mutual option for the 2026 season. He reached the threshold and now will have the option to opt out and enter into free agency.

That seems like a good idea. Giolito has a projected market value of just over $61 million over three years from Spotrac. But, he missed the 2024 season and had a 4.88 ERA in 33 starts in 2023. In 2022, he had a 4.90 ERA in 30 starts. He's going to be a tough person to judge if he does enter free agency. Will teams bet on his 2025 performance or the few years leading up to it? Also, Giolito has been no stranger about his love for Boston this season.

"The magic of Fenway, man," Giolito recently said. "Especially with where we're at, in a playoff race. This is the most fun I've ever had playing baseball in the MLB. Every single game matters. The fans show out. Whether it's a day game, night game, mid-week, weekend, they're here and they're on their feet in the big situation. They're locked in on the game. We can feel that energy as players and it just makes it really special."

Because of these variables, it's too early to make any real prediction on what Giolito will do. Despite this, FanSided's Jacob Levine predicted Giolito will not return.

The Boston Red Sox have been fortunate to have Lucas Giolito

Sep 12, 2025; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Lucas Giolito (54) delivers a pitch during the second inning against the New York Yankees at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Paul Rutherford-Imagn Images | Paul Rutherford-Imagn Images

"Lucas Giolito has a vesting option for 2026, which is Boston's $14 million club option. However, Giolito passed 140 innings this season, which now bumps it up to $19 million for 2026, albeit a mutual option," Levine said. "MLB experts believe that he will decline this option and test the market in free agency, especially given that his career is closer to the end than its beginning..

"Two years ago, Giolito was on the decline. He suffered a UCL injury that needed elbow surgery, taking him out for the entirety of the 2024 season. Many thought that he would be on the cusp of retirement if things didn't pan out for him, but the Red Sox were still willing to roll the dice...He's also projected to make over $60 million in a three-year contract, as Spotrac predicts. No way the Red Sox have the room or the willingness to spend that much money on him. They both know it."

Boston has plenty of cash at its disposal, especially after trading Rafael Devers away. The starting rotation is a big question heading into 2026, although that isn't a concern right now with the playoff push ongoing. But, Giolito has been integral for the organization this year, loves Boston, and can help the team beyond this season. Don't give up hope about a reunion, yet. It's easy to say that with the increase in his contract, that the Red Sox could move on. But, Boston is going to need solid starters last year and he has proven he can succeed in Boston.

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