Lucas Giolito Prediction Would Make Life In AL Harder For Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox's starting rotation certainly is going to look different in 2026.

Boston went out and acquired Sonny Gray from the St. Louis Cardinals and Johan Oviedo from the Pittsburgh Pirates. Those are two guys who will play a significant role in 2026 along with Garrett Crochet and Brayan Bello. There's a notable absence, though. Lucas Giolito was a significant piece of the rotation in 2025 and is a free agent right now. His mutual option was declined and the Red Sox didn't tender him the qualifying offer.

If you like our content, choose Sports Illustrated as a preferred source on Google.

On Thursday, one of the most intriguing free agent hurlers came off the board with Tatsuya Imai heading over to the Houston Astros. Hopefully, this starts to shake up the market and get things moving. If Giolito doesn't return to Boston, where could he go? FOX Sports' Rowan Kavner predicted that the Detroit Tigers will strike and sign Giolito in free agency.

Should the Red Sox try to re-sign Lucas Giolito?

"No. 4. Lucas Giolito, RHP," Kavner wrote. "Logical landing spot: Detroit Tigers. Giolito might end up signing later in the offseason after the market for starting pitching becomes clearer, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him rejoin his old Harvard-Westlake high school teammate, Jack Flaherty, in Detroit. As rumors swirl about the Tigers potentially trading ace Tarik Skubal, they could still use more arms behind him as they attempt to rebound from last year’s late-season stumble and emerge beyond the division series.

"Coming off elbow surgery that wiped out his 2024 season, the start to Giolito’s lone season in Boston was rocky. But he settled in nicely, recording a 2.51 ERA over his final 19 starts to finish the year 10-4 with a 3.41 ERA. He was unable to pitch in the postseason due to another elbow issue and the underlying numbers weren’t particularly flashy, but he could represent a bargain for a team willing to take on the injury risk. He is, after all, a former All-Star still in his early 30s."

This is the type of prediction that would be bad news for the Red Sox. The Tigers went 87-75 in 2025 and have much of the roster still intact. If the Tigers don't trade Tarik Skubal, they very well could be contenders in the American League in 2026. If the Tigers were to also sign Giolito, who had a 3.41 ERA in 26 starts in 2025, that would make Boston's path through the American League that much more difficult.

A rotation featuring Skubal, Giolito, Jack Flaherty, Casey Mize, and then someone like Troy Melton would be among the very best in the game. This idea has some legs as well as Giolito and Flaherty notably were high school teammates.

This is the type of prediction Red Sox fans should hope doesn't come true.

More MLB: New Slugger Enters Mix As Red Sox Look For Next Big Bat