Red Sox Fans Need to Keep an Eye on These 3 Regression Candidates

If the Sox are going to the playoffs, these guys have to show up

Sep 14, 2025; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox relief pitcher Aroldis Chapman (44) high-fives catcher Carlos Narvaez (75) after a game against the New York Yankees at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images | Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

The Boston Red Sox had plenty of high-profile additions and subtractions this offseason, but success will be largely determined by the players who were already around.

Hope springs eternal at this time of year, so lots of work is done in our profession trying to identify the potential breakout stars for each team. But the Red Sox, as flawed as they were last year, had a few players perform well above expectations.

So consider this an early warning. There are a few players on Boston's roster who appear primed to backslide a bit after their big 2025 seasons, and Red Sox fans shouldn't be caught flat-footed if and when that happens.

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1. Carlos Narváez

Sep 24, 2025; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Boston Red Sox catcher Carlos Narvaez (75) hits a three-run home run against the Toronto Blue Jays in the eighth inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images | Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images

The Red Sox love Narváez, and his unexpected emergence as a solid two-way catcher as a rookie was one of the biggest reasons they made the playoffs. He was one of the best defenders at the position, and his league-average offense was more than Boston thought it was getting.

Still, Narváez's stats were inflated by one big month of May (.981 OPS), and his .293 xwOBA was in the 13th percentile of all hitters. He deserves credit for playing through a knee injury for the entire second half of the season, but he's got a lot to prove with the bat in year two.

2. Trevor Story

Feb 22, 2026; Fort Myers, Florida, USA; Boston Red Sox shortstop Trevor Story (10) looks on before the game against the Toronto Blue Jays at JetBlue Park at Fenway South. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images | Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

Story is something of a reverse Narváez, because he had one awful month of May, and otherwise he was the most consistent hitter on the team. He led the Red Sox in home runs, stolen bases, and RBIs, and he led all major league shortstops in the latter category.

Not only does Boston need Story to stay healthy for a second year in a row after he spent most of 2022 through 2024 on the injured list, but it seems to be counting on his power to stay in a similar spot to last season, which was his highest homer total since 2019. He was 26 then; he's 33 now.

3. Aroldis Chapman

Sep 23, 2025; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Boston Red Sox relief pitcher Aroldis Chapman (44) delivers a pitch against the Toronto Blue Jays in the ninth inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images | Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images

Chapman could have an incredible season, perhaps a top-three closer performance in all of baseball, and still qualify for this list. He was so dominant last year that the Red Sox simply have to expect that he won't be there to bail them out as often as he did.

At age 37, Chapman cut his walk rate in half, held opponents to a .132 batting average, and didn't allow a hit for a month and a half. His 1.17 ERA could double and he wouldn't be in any danger of losing the closer role, so the Red Sox are going to need to be better situationally late in games to account for his almost-guaranteed regression.