Red Sox Standout Gets $56 Million Market Projection

Will the Boston Red Sox find a way to keep him?

Apr 29, 2021; Arlington, Texas, USA; A view of the Boston Red Sox logo and a field bag during batting practice before the game between the Texas Rangers and the Boston Red Sox at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Will the Boston Red Sox lose one of their dependable starting pitchers this offseason?

Right now, the Red Sox have so many questions to address in the starting rotation. Fortunately, the club is set three times per week thanks to Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello, and Lucas Giolito. This doesn't mean Boston wins each time these three take the mound, but they consistently get the ball every fifth day and give the Red Sox a chance.

Boston is preparing for a series at home against the New York Yankees this weekend and lined things up in such a way that these three will take the mound. 

Will the Boston Red Sox keep Lucas Giolito?

Sep 6, 2025; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Boston Red Sox pitcher Lucas Giolito (54) pitches during the third inning between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Boston Red Sox at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Arianna Grainey-Imagn Images | Arianna Grainey-Imagn Images

Crochet, Bello, and Giolito have been great. But, only Crochet and Bello are guaranteed to be back in 2026. Giolito has an option in his contract. By this point in the season, you've probably heard about it a tad. Essentially, if Giolito finishes the season with less than 140 innings pitched, the Red Sox have a $14 million club option for the 2026 season that is almost guaranteed to be picked up. With 140 innings or more pitched, it becomes a $19 million mutual option that seems like it would be turned down because Giolito could make much more in the open market.

Giolito is at 130 1/3 right now heading into the Yankees series. After that, he surely will get at least one or two more shots barring an injury. So, the over 140-inning total seems almost guaranteed at this point.

So, if Giolito were to hit the open market, how much could he cost? Spotrac released a projected market value for Giolito and has it set right now at $56 million over three years.

This is just a projection and the market will dictate the ultimate price. But, at 31 years old and holding a 3.38 ERA, that could be incredible value with the way the price for pitching has exploded over the last few years. Last year, the Red Sox were in the Max Fried sweepstakes before he got a $218 million deal with the Yankees. They are roughly the same age and Fried has had more success, but that's just an example of how top-tier pitching contracts have exploded. If the Red Sox could get Giolito on a deal like this, that seems perfectly fair, at least from Boston's perspective.

More MLB: Answers Coming Soon For Red Sox’s Complicated Rotation