Red Sox Trade Might Unlock Caleb Durbin Breakout, Evidence Suggests

What is Durbin capable of doing at Fenway?

Oct 16, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Milwaukee Brewers third baseman Caleb Durbin (21) celebrates in the dugout after scoring against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the second inning during game three of the NLCS round for the 2025 MLB playoffs at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Caleb Durbin isn't the "power bat" the Boston Red Sox said they were looking for at the start of the offseason. But he might be a more powerful version of Caleb Durbin in Boston.

On Monday, the Red Sox acquired Durbin in an out-of-nowhere trade with the Milwaukee Brewers. It was a deal involving six players, and the Red Sox acquired three guys who can play all over the infield.

Durbin finished third in Rookie of the Year voting this past season, but posted an unspectacular .721 OPS. Under the hood, though, there's reason to believe his game still has room to grow, and that Fenway Park should be able to help.

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Why Durbin is a good fit for Fenway

Sep 14, 2025; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Brewers third baseman Caleb Durbin (21) hits a solo home run against the St. Louis Cardinals in the fourth inning at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-Imagn Images | Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

If you're looking at the wrong part of Durbin's Baseball Savant page, you might think Fenway is a bad fit for the 25-year-old infielder. It's the part that says he would have had just five home runs last season if he played all his games in Boston, compared to the 11 he hit in real life.

For one, the Red Sox will play half of their games away from Fenway, and for a non-homer guy, what seems like a drastic difference is really splitting hairs. But second, and more importantly, there's different section of the Savant page that should have fans intrigued.

Durbin's air pull percentage last year was 20.4%, compared to a major league average of 16.7%. In Triple-A in 2024, he was in the 83rd percentile of the same metric. Craig Breslow, the Red Sox's chief baseball officer, even called out this specific metric on Monday as a reason to believe in the player.

Yes, right-handed batters occasionally get an extra home run due to the Green Monster's short dimensions, but they get lots of them taken away as well due to the 37-foot wall height. Where the real advantage comes in is pulled fly balls that catch the bottom of the wall for singles and doubles that would be outs in the vast majority of ballparks.

Put it all together with Durbin's versatility, hard-nosed play style, and physical stature, and you've got a remarkable resemblance to Dustin Pedroia. This is a player the Red Sox fan base is going to love, and it's a good thing in that respect that he has six years left under contract.

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