Red Sox Pitcher Surprisingly Projected to Sign 3-Year, $58 Million Contract

Should the Boston Red Sox make an offer?

Apr 20, 2026; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox pitcher Sonny Gray (54) pitches during the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Boston Red Sox were fortunate to have Sonny Gray in the starting rotation in 2026, but at this point it's completely up in the air if he will be with the team in 2027.

Gray has a $30 million mutual option that is sure to be declined by either the ace, or Boston. Either Gray will be looking for a multi-year deal this winter, or Boston will be looking for a cheaper deal. Either way, the $30 million mutual option will absolutely be declined in some way. With Gray likely to head to the open market, barring an extension or something shocking happening with the mutual option, the next big question is how much will he get in free agency? There have been some numbers thrown around already.

MassLive.com's Chris Cotillo reported that some in the industry believe that he will get a deal in the range of $75 million over three years. Spotrac has a much different projection and currently has his market value projected to be just over $58 million over three years.

Arguably, that's a very surprising projection and should end up being on the lower side.

Sonny Gray Should Cash In

Sep 23, 2026; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox pitcher Sonny Gray (54) delivers a pitch against the Cleveland Guardians during the first inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Gray is 36 years old. That is the only thing that is working negatively against him, but his age didn't matter in 2026. He had a 2.72 ERA in 169 innings pitched and led the league with 18 wins. A three-year deal worth $58 million would have an annual average of $19.3 million per year. That would come in under guys like Yusei Kikuchi, Luis Castillo, Seth Lugo and Luis Severino, among many others. A $19.3 million annual average is on par with guys like Jose Berrios and just ahead of Chris Bassitt.

But his performance on the field wasn't just ahead of someone like Bassitt, for example, in 2026. Bassitt is 37 years old and had a 4.59 ERA in 20 appearances for the Baltimore Orioles. The year before, he had a 3.96 ERA in 32 appearances.

Gray was excellent in 2026 and the advanced metrics didn't show a decline, despite his age. The idea of a three-year deal for someone who will turn 37 years old in November is a bit nerve-wracking, but the price tag projected arguably is too low. Something closer to what Cotillo reported should be where Gray lands this winter. He earned it, whether that is with Boston or another club. If the price ends up being that low, it's something the Red Sox should entertain.