Five Changes That Have Led to the Red Sox’ Surge

Boston’s 13-game winning streak didn’t happen by accident. The team has improved in a number of facets to put itself in a playoff spot.

Red Sox rookie pitcher Jake Bennett has a 2.35 ERA through nine MLB starts. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

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Fenway Park is full. The fans are having a rollicking good time falling in love with their Red Sox. President of baseball operations Craig Breslow can take a bow for his once-maligned “Milwaukee East” plan to build a team in a hitter’s park on pitching, defense and undersized players.

Has there ever been a team that turned around its season so completely yet so quickly? With apologies to the sign-stealing 1951 New York Giants, probably not.

On June 18, the Red Sox had a 5.6% probability of making the playoffs. Entering Sunday, it was 66.9%.

Starting play on June 25, the Red Sox were 32–46—one of 473 teams with a record at least that bad through 78 games. How many of those 473 teams made the playoffs?

Zero. Never happened.

Since then, the Red Sox ripped off a 17–2 run in which they have outscored opponents 100–53 and look like a playoff team. Under interim manager Chad Tracy, the Red Sox are channeling “Morgan’s Magic” of 1988, when the Sox ran off 12 straight wins and an 18–1 run after “Walpole” Joe Morgan took over as manager from John McNamara. At the heart of Boston’s revival is the exact vision Breslow had when he put together this team without much power: winning with pitching and defense. Check this out:

Lowest ERA in 17–2 or Better Span, Boston Red Sox

Year	ERA	Season Outcome
1946	2.42	Won pennant
1942	2.43	93 wins, second place
2018	2.54	Won World Series
2026	2.55	?
1985	2.55	81 wins, fifth place

The turnaround began June 25 with a four-game sweep of the Yankees at Fenway Park, where the Red Sox had been 13–30. It continued with a 9–0 trip that included the 24-hour fiasco of a trip from Chicago to New York.

“It started [that] homestand just because of all the documentation on how we had played at home and the Yankee series,” Tracy says. “You could feel it happening there. Just winning games at home and it started to gel and some of the guys that have come in brought energy. And then obviously the road trip.”

Nothing binds a team more than winning on the road, especially with schedule and travel challenges. What are built-in reasons to complain can become mortar for winning teams.

“You're not wrong,” Tracy says. “Yeah, you get stuck [on an airplane]—[Payton] Tolle said that you get stuck in an eight-foot tube with a bunch of people for 10 hours—you're going to get a little closer.”

How did this turnaround happen? Here are the key reasons why the Red Sox have made this surge:

The Red Sox have a 40–31 record under interim manager Chad Tracy, a 91-win pace. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

1. Firing manager Alex Cora

Cora is a brilliant baseball mind, but going back to the Rafael Devers fiasco there was a growing sense that the front office and manager were not aligned on personnel and direction. Hiring Tracy, who managed many of the Boston players in the minors, and who as a rookie manager would be in sync with the front office, created a seamless transition and clubhouse stability.

2. Throwing strikes (and catching the ball)

Only the Mariners and Rays throw more strikes than do the Red Sox. Only five teams have a lower walk rate. Pitching coach Andrew Bailey puts a premium on his pitchers filling the strike zone, especially because the Red Sox have the best defense in the AL, as ranked by outs above average.

“Well, if you're in the dugout, you can hear Bails all the time,” Tracy says. “He'll be screaming. A guy gets 2–0 and you can hear him in there, ‘No walks! No walks!’ We want to force the ball in play. A big part of it is we have guys with good stuff. And trust your stuff. Like, ‘Your stuff plays in the zone’—our starters and our relievers.

“So, we have guys with good stuff. Trust your stuff. Get it over the zone. And on top of that, this is the other piece of this that's really important, ‘Oh, by the way, you have a fantastic defense behind you. So, there is really no reason, with your stuff combined with what the guys that are standing behind you do with the gloves, not to get in there.’

“You feel like even if a guy hits the ball hard towards the outfield, somebody's going to catch it, you know? If they hit a ball hard towards the infield, [Chad] Durbin, the way he's been, and Willson [Contreras], somebody's going to catch it. So, I think that's helped. You'd have to ask the guys, but I think the pitchers would probably tell you when you feel like everybody behind you is going to catch the ball, it's really easy to get in the zone.”

3. Hitting home runs

The Red Sox are 28th in home runs. The way to a championship in today’s game is still through the home run. The past six World Series champions all ranked in the top four in MLB in homers. But Boston is a far more powerful team than how it began the season.

The Red Sox’s home run rate improved from 0.86 per game in the first 78 games to 1.37 in the next 19. The chief turnarounds have come from Chad Durbin, who has been getting the ball in the air since seeing a private hitting coach in Waltham, Mass., and Wilyer Abreu, whose 13-degree launch angle through May has soared to 27 degrees since.

4. A lockdown bullpen

After starting the year 7–18, the Boston bullpen is 6–0 in July with MLB bests in ERA (1.65 ERA) and WHIP (0.90). Garrett Whitlock and Aroldis Chapman have allowed just four homers in 68 combined appearances. When the Red Sox have a win in hand, they don’t let it get away.

5. Luck

The Red Sox were 5-12 in one-run games through 78 games. They are 4–0 since. Based on run differential, Boston should have four more wins than they do. Only the Angels and Tigers have a greater differential.

Things were bound to turn around for Boston. But this much this quickly? This is a turnaround of historic proportions.

Red Sox center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela leads the AL with 25 doubles. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Next PCA?

Only Riley Greene of the Tigers and Taylor Ward of the Orioles have improved their chase rate more than Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Cubs (-6.2). It’s still too high (35.5%), but as it comes down, you’re beginning to see just how high his ceiling might be.

The same path might be there for Ceddanne Rafaela of Boston. Like PCA, he is an elite center field defender and runner who is an extremely talented bad-ball hitter who is improving his sky-high chase rate (41.1%). There is a huge upside still there for his offensive game.

“What's crazy is you say a really high chase rate, but it’s not nearly as high as it was, you know?” Tracy says. “And so, exactly what you said, he has some chase, but he has the ability to hit bad balls and hit them for home runs and doubles.

“So, you don't want to take away the aggressiveness, but it was always with Rafa like, ‘Can we rein it in a little bit?’ I haven't looked at it here recently, but last month I was looking at it and it was about 8 or 9% better than it had been. And you see the results with that.

“He's taken some walks and the work he's done with two strikes has been impressive—the ability to minimize the chase with two strikes. He shortened up his move. Everything's more compact, and he's willing to use the other side of the field and just slap a single or a double to right center field. You can see a discernible difference in how much less movement there is going on with two strikes. So, all of those things have helped him immensely.”

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