The Chase Burns Extension Was a No-Brainer for the Reds

Chase Burns isn’t going anywhere for a while.

According to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, the Reds locked up the 23-year-old starter to a seven-year, $105 million deal that will keep him in Cincinnati through the 2033 season. A first-time All-Star this season, Burns now has the security of a long-term deal, while the team got a team-friendly extension done in the middle of his breakout campaign. It was the obvious move for a franchise on the rise.

The Reds selected Burns with the No. 2 pick in the 2024 MLB draft after a dominant junior season at Wake Forest. The franchise signed him to a then-record $9.25 million bonus. Burns was selected in the 20th round of the ’21 draft out of high school but opted to attend Tennessee. After an up-and-down two years for the Volunteers, he transferred to Wake Forest and was the best pitcher in the country in ’24. He went 10–1 with a 2.70 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and an incredible 191 strikeouts in 100 innings.

It wasn’t surprising that Burns moved fast through the Reds’ system. He only made 13 minor league starts before debuting on June 24 last season. He somewhat struggled while showing flashes of the electric starter Cincinnati was expecting. Burns went 0–3 with a 4.57 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP and 67 strikeouts against 16 walks in 43 1/3 innings over 13 appearances.

This season has been a different story.

From the jump, Burns has been phenomenal this year. He’s 11–1 with a 2.54 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP and 118 strikeouts against 37 walks in 102 2/3 innings. He’s allowed two or fewer runs in 15 of his 18 starts. Among qualified MLB pitchers, he ranks second in wins, sixth in ERA, sixth in xERA (3.16) and eighth in fWAR (2.9). He's also tied for second in average fastball velocity (97.9 mph).

The fact that he’s producing at that level through what is essentially one full big league season made it an easy decision for the Reds to lock him up long-term.

Burns’s arsenal is fastball/slider heavy, as he only mixes in his changeup 6% of the time. Looking inside the numbers, it’s not shocking why he’s nevertheless so dominant.

Cincinnati’s phenom throws his fastball 57% of the time and generates an elite level of spin, averaging 2,615 rpms. The offering also averages 18.7 inches of induced vertical break, or ride, meaning it remains up in the zone much higher than an average fastball. When combined with that average velocity of roughly 98 mph and 3.6 inches of arm-side tail, it becomes incredibly difficult to hit. In fact, opposing batters are generating an xBA of just .233 on his fastball, and an xSLG of .393.

While his fastball is really hard to hit, Burns’s slider earned him his new contract. He throws it 37% of the time and it is definitely his out pitch. The breaking pitch is essentially an incredibly tight hard gyro slider that averages 90.5 mph, with only 3.0 inches of break and 0.6 inches of induced vertical break. It averages an exceptional 2,753 rpms of spin, which means it holds its shape like a fastball early before breaking and falling sharply late. Opponents are generating a xBA of .157 and an xSLG of .256 against it. It is a truly dominant pitch.

Burns’s changeup is a work in progress. Opposing hitters are obliterating it to the tune of an .842 slugging percentage. That will need to be ironed out in the future, but as things stand, his fastball-slider combination is one of the best in baseball. It's the arsenal of a guy who would make around $30 million a year on the open market, and the Reds locked him up for an AAV of $15 million. With a lockout and potential changes to contract structures on the horizon, it was a shrewd move by both sides to get a deal done.

Hunter Greene agreed to a six-year, $53 million extension in April 2023, which means the Reds have the top of their rotation locked up through ’29. Few, if any, teams will have a better one-two punch than that.

This was excellent work by the team’s front office.

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