Spring Training Check In: Analyzing Reds' Starting Rotation and Bullpen

CINCINNATI – Pitchers and catchers reported this week and baseball is officially back.

The Reds' rotation is pretty well locked in for the first four pitchers. The bullpen saw some key additions, headlined by the resigning of Emilio Pagan and the signing of Caleb Furgeson and Pierce Johnson. Here is how I can see the battle for the fifth spot in the rotation and the final bullpen spot.

In a recent post from FOX19's Charlie Goldsmith on 𝕏, the battle for the fifth and final spot in the rotation will come down to Rhett Lowder, Chase Burns and Brandon Williamson. Lowder missed the majority of the 2025 season due to injuries, appearing in just nine games if you include the four starts he made in the Arizona Fall League.

Lowder, in my opinion, would be a lock for a rotation spot had the team moved on from Brady Singer this offseason, but I do not see the Reds moving Chase Burns to the bullpen for Lowder to take the final spot in the rotation with how Burns performed in 2025. Brandon Williamson missed the final weeks of the 2024 season and the entirety of the 2025 season recovering from Tommy John surgery. Manager Terry Francona had this to say about the three guys battling for the fifth rotation spot.

“They look like they belong, and they feel like they belong,” Francona said. “Sometimes with that comes an even better player.”

Hunter Greene looks to headline this rotation going into this season. Greene took a major leap again in 2025, tossing his first complete game shutout in a nine-inning game while nearly no-hitting the Chicago Cubs in a pivotal matchup down the stretch. Andrew Abbott and Nick Lodolo also made strides, each making career highs in starts, with Abbott being named to the All-Star team.

The team made some key additions this offseason in the bullpen, signing Pierce Johnson and Caleb Ferguson in free agency while trading for Brock Burke. Connor Phillips had a dominant stretch in September that saw him have a 10-inning scoreless streak and see more pressure situations out of the bullpen.

The bullpen is nearly a sure thing. Pagan is going to be the closer, Santillan will be the setup man reliever with the newcomers Burke and Johnson as late inning options. Furgeson gives the Reds a quality left-handed reliever, Connor Phillips showed last season that he can dominate Major League hitting, and Graham Ashcraft looks to improve, building off his debut season in the bullpen.

Reds' pitching coach Derek Johnson spoke on the fact that Pagan and Santillan are both healthy coming into camp, after heavy loads last season.

“We’ll slow play them a little,” Derek Johnson said about Emilio Pagan and Tony Santillan. “We need to give them a bit of time on the front end to build and maybe not be in games right away. They’ll be itching. We’ll play that by ear and give them a say.”

When asked about the new additions to the bullpen, this is what he had to say.

“There’s some versatility,” Johnson said. “We have left-handers who can help us out and actually a couple of them are pretty good against right-handed hitters as well. There are a lot of moving parts, but there are a lot of possibilities.”

Overall, I believe Chase Burns will be the Reds' fifth starter going into the season if everyone is healthy. Burns was the second-overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft and dominated at every level last season. I think that Lowder can benefit from some reps in Triple-A, along with Brandon Williamson. Both pitchers have faced minimal game action since the conclusion of the 2024 season.

For the bullpen, Pagan, Santillan, Johnson, Burke, Ferguson, and Ashcraft seem to be locks. That leaves Sam Moll, Connor Phillips, Zack Maxwell, and Luis Mey, along with some non-roster invites, fighting for the final two bullpen spots. I believe Phillips will earn one of those spots, leaving one spot for Moll, Maxwell, and Mey.

Moll is out of options, which may give him a leg-up on Mey and Maxwell, but Moll struggled mightily last season. He had a 40.50 ERA in 2/3 of an inning in April. In 23 games, he had a .229 batting average against him and a 1.42 WHIP, both career worsts. Maxwell and Mey are high-velocity guys, but they struggle with command. Should all three of them struggle, there may be a situation where Brandon Williamson can be a long relief option as the final bullpen spot, although unlikely.

Pitchers and catchers reported on Monday. The first full squad workouts begin on Monday, February 16.

You can read Charlie Goldsmith's full article here.

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