Predicting the Cincinnati Reds' Opening Day Starting Rotation

The Cincinnati Reds have finally put together an offseason that feels complete. While the roster isn’t perfect, it feels more well-rounded than in years past, which makes predicting the Opening Day version quite enjoyable.

Let’s begin with the strength of the Reds: the starting rotation. This was going to be the case even if the Reds signed Eugenio Suarez AND Kyle Schwarber, as the Reds have one of the top rotations in baseball.

As Spring Training begins, the top four is undeniable with the only competition being for the fifth spot. Barring injury, this is how the top four should stack up.

Hunter Greene
Andrew Abbott
Nick Lodolo
Brady Singer

Greene is still the most talented pitcher on this staff. Should he put it all together this season and give the Reds 28-plus starts, he will be ranked highly on most Cy Young ballots.

Abbott had a phenomenal season last year and has some arguing for an Opening Day appointment (if you listen to my co-host on Locked On Reds). His mix of consistency and talent gives the Reds a very good number two starter.

Some may argue that Lodolo should be number two, but I give the edge to Abbott simply because he was a little bit better last year.

Singer provides the kind of trust most teams wish they had in the middle of their rotation for the back end of the Reds.

Then there’s the fifth spot. I have Chase Burns as the favorite to land in the Opening Day rotation. Every projection system that is active loves him. Many analysts are picking him as a breakout candidate for this year. His stuff is electric and he showed that even after a blowup he can still be dominant.

The thing with Burns is that he will undoubtedly be on an innings limit of some kind. Whether that is executed through sporadic appearances on the IL or through a late-season move to the bullpen, do not expect 30 starts from Burns this season. I have him at 20 starts, assuming no larger health concerns sap his season. That means someone else will need to fill in some gaps.

The great news is the Reds are spoiled for choice in their starting rotation depth. Rhett Lowder is healthy and in camp, preparing for the season. So is Brandon Williamson after receiving some recognition over the offseason from pitching coach Derek Johnson for his work to get back to playing shape. The Reds have another top prospect in Chase Petty, who got a cup of coffee last season and figures to be in the mix this year, as well as one more pitcher in Julian Aguiar, who is returning from a season-long stint on the IL.

There may be one or two or three days where the Reds choose to employ an opener, but that will most likely be few and far between as their starting rotation in Louisville will rival some MLB rotations. That gives them the kind of depth at starting pitcher to be confident in a good year on the mound for Cincinnati.

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