Cincinnati Reds Have 2 of Baseball's Unluckiest Hitters in May

The Cincinnati Reds got off to one of the hottest starts in baseball this year, but have almost completely fizzled out in May.

This has largely been due to how horrendous their pitching staff, specifically their bullpen, has been over the last few weeks. But the Reds haven't had much luck at the plate in May either.

Cincinnati's lineup is seemingly coming together, though there are still one or two holes on the roster. But once the luck turns in the Reds' direction, they should see an even bigger boost in offense.

Sal Stewart, Spencer Steer Have Been Unlucky in May

May 18, 2026; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Cincinnati Reds infielder Spencer Steer (7) runs to first after hitting an RBI double against the Philadelphia Phillies in the eighth inning at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-Imagn Images | Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

Expected stats are a crucial part of evaluating players in MLB, but they should be taken with a grain of salt. Expected stats take into account the direction, launch angle, and exit velocity of a batted ball before spitting out the expected stats of that specific event based on the history of batted balls in the past.

In May, Sal Stewart's xwOBA is .385 while his true wOBA is .313. The gap of over 70 points paints him as one of the unluckiest players in the league. In May, Spencer Steer's xwOBA is .413 while his wOBA is only .355. While a .355 wOBA is good, a .413 wOBA would be near the top of the league for the month of May.

Both of these players are hitting the ball hard and at good launch angles. Steer is pulling the ball in the air a lot, too. Over time, these two numbers will even out a bit, but the early indications are that these two Reds hitters are getting unlucky.

Reds Offense Should Continue Trending in the Right Direction

May 19, 2026; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Cincinnati Reds shortstop Elly de la Cruz (44) and pitcher Tony Santillan (64) celebrate win against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images | Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

With that in mind, the Reds offense should be expected to come around even more going forward.

They have been a solid unit for the last few weeks, helping keep the Reds semi-afloat while the pitching staff struggles. Elly De La Cruz has been one of the best hitters in baseball this season, and he's not showing any signs of slowing down. Steer has been one of the brighter spots for the Reds, and he should only get better with more luck. Stewart's recent resurgence has also been encouraging for the Reds, as he's one of the best hitters in the National League when he's hot.

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