Cincinnati Reds May Need to Make a Tough Outfield Decision

CINCINNATI – The Reds made added a lot of outfield depth this past offseason, with the struggles that TJ Friedl has had, I think it is time to finally make a change.

Underlying Statistics

This season, Friedl is batting just .188 with a .538 OPS. Over the course of his career, he has been a solid option at the leadoff spot for the Reds. This season, that has not been the case. From 2022 through 2025, Friedl had an on-base percentage of .343 and was an above-league-average bat, posting a 105 OPS+. This season, he's getting on-base at just .278, and his OPS+ is at 49, putting him 51 points below average. He's in his age-30 season this year, and all of his advanced metrics are significantly down from his previous years. He is looking more like Santiago Espinal or Jacob Hurtubise from last season, rather than the player the Reds have grown accustomed to.

While he's never quite had great advanced stats, in 2023, he was in the 91st percentile in range (Outs Above Average) at six. He was in the 85th percentile in arm value, the 54th percentile in arm strength, and his sprint speed was in the 74th percentile. His hitting measurements were never eye-catching, but his whiff rate and strikeout percentage were far above league average; 87th percentile in whiff percentage and 85th percentile in strikeout percentage.

This season, his arm value is at -1, putting him in the 23rd percentile. His range is in the 61st percentile. His hitting stats are down. He's in the eighth percentile in hard-hit percentage. His chase rate is in the 61st percentile at 28.1 percent. His whiff percentage is in the 67th percentile. His walk rate is down to nine percent, in the 46th percentile.

Age and injuries may finally be catching up to him. The Reds added a lot of outfield depth this offseason, along with Noelvi Marte transitioning to the outfield for his first full season.

Should They Make a Change?

In my opinion, yes, the Reds should make a change when it comes to Friedl playing every day and at leadoff. Overall, this team is hitting more home runs this season and needs either a legit table-setter at leadoff or another power threat.

The team recently promoted JJ Bleday, who was added via free agency this offseason. He hit a home run and drew a walk in his season debut. In 85 at-bats in Triple-A, Bleday hit .341 with a 1.121 OPS and six home runs. I'm not saying Bleday comes up and hits leadoff, but he gives the Reds a better bat and defense right now in a platoon role with Dane Myers, Will Benson, Spencer Steer, and Rece Hinds.

Not to mention, Noelvi Marte is crushing it in Triple-A right now. He was named the International League's Player of the Week in his first week after being sent back down to Louisville. Marte, if he can put together more consistent at-bats, looks to be a long-term fixture in the outfield.

“It’s about consistency,” Marte told Fox19's Charlie Goldsmith. “You’ve got to be consistent. Do everything to help the team. As a team, this year can be a really good year for us. I feel good because it takes a little pressure off you. But my way of doing things is I don’t get comfortable. When I get comfortable, you miss opportunities. I keep fighting and working.”

The Reds are being carried offensively primarily by Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart. Nathaniel Lowe has hit four home runs over his last three games and is contributing with Eugenio Suarez on the injured list. They're currently first in the division and off to their best start since 2006 at 18-10. If they can get more consistency from the outfield, whether it comes from Friedl or somebody else, it should only have a more positive outcome.

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