Contender or Pretender? Reds Quietly Emerging as Top NL Team

The 2025 Cincinnati Reds had a lot of fire and a lot of production from their stars. They surged into the postseason, but were cut down by the Los Angeles Dodgers before they could win a game.

A year later, the Reds look even better. They're off to an incredible 18-9 start, sitting in first place in the National League Central and third place in the entire league. What's changed?

“We’re more mature,” Matt McLain said, via Reds reporter Charlie Goldsmith. “More polished. Playing the game the right way. You can go 0-for-4, come up in the ninth inning and get that big hit. Up and down the lineup, you can point that out.”

The Reds are 11-0 in games decided by two runs or less, including Friday night's thrilling 9-8 victory over the Detroit Tigers by way of a Nathaniel Lowe walk-off home run.

Winning these close games comes down to the bullpen's ability to keep the score where it is and the offense's ability to pick up timely hits.

“It’s a credit to defense, our bullpen, guys coming up in big moments, base running, firing on all aspects,” McLain said, via Goldsmith. “We want to get going on the hitting side of the things. We’re fighting.”

The Reds have been hot as a team, but there aren't too many players who are scorching hot. Elly De La Cruz has played well, but we haven't seen one of his patented stretches of games where he'll play like the best player in the league. Eugenio Suárez, who's on the injured list now, hasn't gotten hot. But the Reds don't need to be hot to win games.

“We don’t necessarily need to be scorching hot to win a lot of games,” Spencer Steer said. “That’s a good feeling.”

This should keep the Reds consistent all season. The teams that need to be hot in order to win games are often the streakiest teams in the league.

Are the Reds Contenders or Pretenders in 2026?

Apr 19, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Cincinnati Reds manager Terry Francona (77) watches play against the Minnesota Twins in the seventh inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Blewett-Imagn Images | Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

The patented "Rally Reds" have come back this season, too, as the Reds refuse to quit in any game until the final out is recorded. This was put on full display on Friday night as the Reds surged back with a single from Steer and a walk-off homer from Lowe to beat Kenley Jansen and the Tigers.

“We just don’t give up,” Lowe said. “It’s only April. It’s an exciting group. The sky is the limit for this group.”

Early in the year, the Reds' offensive stats didn't look good. They had a lot of players struggling at the plate. But as time has gone on, the stats have begun to even out. The production still isn't where the Reds would want it to be, but it's trending in the right direction. While Sal Stewart has cooled down, Spencer Steer has begun heating up. TJ Friedl has looked better than he did to begin the season. Everything is collectively moving in the right direction.

“Stats get magnified as a baseball player early in the year,” Steer said. “So, on the outside looking in, it always looks worse than it actually is. I watch these guys take at-bats every day. They’re good. Looking at how our offense has played up to this point, that should give us confidence.”

Considering the Reds aren't at full strength, as Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo haven't debuted this season, the Reds should be viewed as contenders. They have the ability to compete with the best teams in the league right now. They should only get better as the season goes on. They might not win the division at the end of the year, but they're a much better team than they're given credit for.

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