3 Keys to a Rockies Upset Over the San Francisco Giants

The Rockies are desperate to get things turned around and this is as good of a chance as they are going to get.

Colorado Rockies outfielder Troy Johnston | Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

The Colorado Rockies had one day to rest after getting beaten up by the Los Angeles Dodgers, and then they will open a three-game home series against the San Francisco Giants.

This weekend both teams come in struggling. Colorado carries a 2-8 record in the last ten games. The roster is being held together with a wing and a prayer.

The Giants aren’t much better if we are honest. The California-based organization comes in with a 22-34 record and losers of seven of their last ten.

Both of these teams need a turnaround. Colorado has a path to taking this series if it can execute in three key areas.

1. Survive Webb in Game 1, Then Attack

Colorado Rockies catcher Hunter Goodman | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Logan Webb will be returning from the IL Friday evening after missing time with right knee bursitis. Even with his 2-4 record and a 5.06 ERA this season, he remains dangerous to the Colorado Rockies.

Webb’s career 3.45 ERA across 188 starts should be noted as to what he can do. If he is 100% healthy now, he will enter the pitcher-friendly Coors Field and could cause damage.

The Rockies will need to be patient, work pitch counts and wait to take what he gives them.

The next two games are where this series can be won. Adrian Houser (2-4, 5.30 ERA) is projected to start on Saturday and Robbie Ray (3-6, 5.85 ERA) will take the mound on Sunday. Neither Giants starter should inspire fear against the Rockies.

Troy Johnston (.314/.376/.432) and Hunter Goodman (12 home runs and a .766 OPS) give Colorado a legitimate middle of the order threat, and if TJ Rumfield (.281/.359/.448) returns healthy after a right-hand contusion, the Rockies will have another quality at-bat.

2. Exploit a Thin Giants Lineup

Colorado Rockies pitcher Michael Lorenzen | Anna Carrington-Imagn Images

Just taking a look at the National League West standings and it is evident that San Francisco’s offense was a weaker unit, and it continues to get thinner.

According to injury reports, Heliot Ramos will be out after receiving a PRP injection; Jung Hoo Lee will be eligible for return on May 29 but is still day-to-day. It is likely that the Giants will be without both of their corner outfielders for the series.

Looking at the rest of the potential lineup and they only have one hitter above an .800 OPS - Casey Schmitt who is slashing .291/.332/.555 with a .887 OPS and 12 home runs.

Colorado’s pitching staff should be able to keep this lineup in check if they can execute.

If the starters, who are projected to be Michael Lorenzen Friday; TBD Saturday; and, Tanner Gordon on Sunday, can keep the game within reason, the bullpen should be able to hold on. Anotonio Senzatela has been the most reliable arm that Colorado can count on this season. He is boasting a 1.36 ERA over 33 innings.

Jaden Hill and Brennan Bernardino give the Rockies solid chances. The key is going to be keeping Schmitt in the park and not allowing Arraez to ignite rallies.

3. Take Advantage of a Struggling Closer

Colorado Rockies center fielder Brenton Doyle | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

The Giants closer, Ryan Walker, has been a disappointment this year. He entered the season with a 3.22 ERA and 31 saves and currently has a 6.46 ERA with a 1.86 WHIP. If you zoom in a little it gets worse. His last seven appearances yielded a 9.95 ERA.

So, if the Rockies can get some momentum and somehow get a lead built up late in the game, the door will be open for a win.

Colorado may also be getting some additions to the roster back if things go as planned. Jordan Beck and Brenton Doyle both have projected return dates during this series. Should both of them return, the outfield depth would be significantly better.

Now For Reality

Not a single thing mentioned here will be easy for the struggling Rockies. Their own rotation is severely compromised, and looking at stats makes you want to look away. The margin for error for either one of these teams is razor-thin, and somehow it gets thinner daily.

The Giants are beatable. Colorado should be desperate for a win, this is the best chance they are going to have for a while.