Rockies Receive Surprisingly Positive Record Projection for This Season

The Colorado Rockies are projected to be in for a very different season than their 2025 campaign, according to a prominent MLB standings forecaster.

Colorado Rockies hat and glove / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

To distinguish between any of the uninspiring recent 100-loss seasons of the NL West basement-dwelling Colorado Rockies might seem like a largely pointless exercise. Once you get into the triple-digit loss territory, after all, the many defeats tend to start to blur together.

But even still, the Rockies' 119-loss 2025 campaign was disappointing even by the franchise's recent low standards. Not only was it 16 losses worse than any other season in their history, but it also put them in a tie with the 2003 Detroit Tigers for the second-worst record dating back to the start of the modern era in 1901 (the 2024 Chicago White Sox dropped 121 games).

Perhaps Rockies fans can take some solace in knowing that the projected 2026 MLB standings of PECOTA, Baseball Prospectus' projection tool, have the club tabbed for 60.7 wins, roughly representing an 18-win improvement and, while hardly playoff-worthy, a marked step in the right direction under the club's new regime.

Growth has to start somewhere, and while PECOTA still envisions Colorado reaching triple digits in losses, it does project the Rockies to have the biggest win increase in the majors.

Rockies' Projection Speaks Volumes About 2025 and 2026

New Colorado Rockies president of baseball operations Paul DePodesta laughs on the sideline before an NFL preseason football game at Cleveland Browns Stadium, Saturday, Aug. 17, 2024, in Cleveland, Ohio. / Jeff Lange / USA TODAY NETWORK

Colorado's PECOTA projection speaks both to how disastrous the 2025 campaign was, but also hints at hope for what's to come.

The 2025 Rockies paired abysmal pitching with putrid hitting, particularly given that they played half their games in the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field. At home, they managed 4.55 runs per game, but allowed 7.15 for a negative run differential - at home, no less - of over -2.5 per game.

On the mound, Colorado finished 30th in team ERA (5.97), more than a half run per game worse than the 29th-place Washington Nationals. Kyle Freeland led the majors in losses (17), but was the only Rockies pitcher to start at least 10 games and maintain an ERA below 6.33. Tanner Gordon's six wins were good for the team lead.

Offensively, the club recorded the second-highest strikeout total (behind the Los Angeles Angels) while taking the fewest walks (395). As such, they registered the lowest on-base percentage (.293) across both leagues while scoring the second-fewest runs. Their 110 errors were second to only the Boston Red Sox (116).

The projection of an 18-win improvement isn't merely a reflection on the ugly past, but a sign of optimism that this season might at least bring some level of respectability.

Under a new-look front office headed up by president of baseball operations Paul DePodesta and general manager Josh Byrnes, the Rockies are looking to move past last season. They brought in Michael Lorenzen, Tomoyuki Sugano, Jose Quintana and Brendan Bernadino to spark the pitching corps, while adding the likes of Edouard Julien, Jake McCarty, Willi Castro and Troy Johnston to bolster the lineup.

Another year of development from the likes of Jordan Beck and Tyler Freeman, plus a return to health for Ezequiel Tovar and a full season with Warren Schaefer at the helm should also help.

No one, PECOTA included, is anticipating a miraculous, worst-to-first improvement for Colorado. But the franchise needs to start somewhere in its gradual return to playing winning baseball, and this year could represent the start of something under DePodesta and Byrnes.

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